In recent days, Brazil’s political landscape has been marked by mounting tensions in Congress, internal rifts within the Lula administration, and renewed judicial pressure on former President Jair Bolsonaro. Speaker of the House Hugo Motta has come under criticism from both allies and opposition figures. At the same time, the government has suffered legislative setbacks on key issues such as environmental regulation and fiscal reform. President Lula’s decision to veto a bill that would increase the number of federal deputies also fueled controversy within the ruling coalition. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro faces stricter restrictions imposed by the Supreme Federal Court as investigations into coup-related activities advance.
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First Semester of Motta
Hugo Motta (Republicanos) ends his first semester as Speaker of the House of Representatives under criticism, including from his allies. Members of Congress and figures from President Lula’s administration (PT) have questioned the reliability of the political agreements he has attempted to broker. Additionally, he faces accusations related to ghost employees. After enduring months of complaints regarding the lack of a legislative agenda, Motta sought to make a mark by creating a working group to propose an administrative reform. However, his most significant defeat came on Wednesday (16), when President Lula vetoed a bill that would have increased the number of federal deputies in the House from 513 to 531.
Veto on the Increase of Deputies
President Lula (PT) vetoed the bill that would have expanded the number of federal deputies. The veto order, published on Thursday (17/07), cited reasons of “public interest and unconstitutionality.” According to Lula, the measure would lead to increased mandatory spending without a complete estimate of budgetary impact, source of funding, or compensatory measures—thus placing an additional financial burden not only on the federal government but also on subnational entities. Although the bill passed through Congress, it became the subject of heated debate within the Planalto Palace, especially as the government continues to grapple with its stance on fiscal austerity.
Spending Ceiling
The proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) that establishes new rules for court-ordered government debts (precatórios) removes these expenditures from the spending ceiling and introduces a ten-year transition mechanism. This transition, starting in 2027, will allow the federal government to gradually integrate these payments into its primary fiscal targets as defined by the Budgetary Guidelines Law (LDO). Each year, 10% of the total precatório stock will be incorporated into the primary result target, so that by the end of the ten years, the full amount will be included within the fiscal goals.
Environmental Issue
In the early hours of Thursday (17/07), the House of Representatives passed a bill that eases and simplifies environmental licensing procedures, despite appeals from Environment Minister Marina Silva and the Environmental Caucus for its rejection. The Lula administration (PT) remained notably absent from the debate. The bill passed with 267 votes in favor and 116 against. Although PT, PSOL, and the government officially opposed the measure, it received broad support from parties that currently hold cabinet posts. The bill now awaits either sanction or veto by President Lula. Lawmakers already anticipate that the matter may be challenged in the Supreme Federal Court (STF), given that several congressmembers pointed out possible unconstitutionalities during the legislative process.
Government Approval
Disapproval of President Lula’s administration (PT) dropped by four percentage points—within the margin of error—to 53%, according to a Quaest poll released on Wednesday (16/07). Meanwhile, approval rose to 43%. The margin of error is two percentage points in either direction. In the previous Quaest poll, disapproval had reached a record high of 57%, while approval stood at 40%, marking a 17-point gap. The current survey narrows that difference to 10 points, the smallest gap recorded since January.
Jair Bolsonaro
Former President Jair Bolsonaro has been barred from communicating with other defendants involved in the criminal investigations into the coup plot, by order of Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Alexandre de Moraes. This restriction includes former Minister Walter Braga Netto, Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid, and Bolsonaro’s son, federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL), who is currently on leave. The order also prohibits any contact with ambassadors, foreign authorities, or embassies. These measures were imposed due to suspicions that Bolsonaro and Eduardo collaborated with the U.S. government to pressure Brazilian institutions in exchange for halting coup-related activities. Bolsonaro has also been ordered to wear an electronic ankle monitor, remain at home at night and on weekends, and refrain from using social media.
Analysis:
The latest developments in Brasília reflect the fragmented and often contradictory dynamics within both the government and Congress. Speaker Hugo Motta’s troubled first semester and President Lula’s veto of the bill to increase the number of federal deputies reveal a lack of cohesion among political leaders—even those aligned with the ruling coalition. The environmental licensing bill, passed with little resistance from the executive branch, further illustrates the government’s limited influence over congressional allies, particularly on sensitive policy issues.
Meanwhile, the drop in disapproval ratings suggests a slight rebound in Lula’s public image, though the numbers remain far from favorable. This improvement likely stems from the government’s firm response to measures recently adopted by Donald Trump. The president’s recent actions, such as the deputy expansion veto, also appear aimed at reinforcing a responsible fiscal narrative. On the judicial front, the restrictions imposed on former President Jair Bolsonaro indicate that the STF is intensifying its pressure on those suspected of coordinating anti-democratic efforts, keeping the coup investigations at the center of Brazil’s political agenda.
Sources: A Folha de SP [1], [2], [3]; O Globo [1], [2], [3]; G1.
