Brazil’s political and institutional landscape is undergoing a sensitive period of transition, marked by significant developments in the Judiciary, Congress, and the Executive branch. Within the Supreme Federal Court, new leadership under Justices Flávio Dino and Luiz Edson Fachin is expected to guide the pace of coup-related trials while signaling a more restrained institutional approach. In Congress, Speaker Hugo Motta’s decision to block Eduardo Bolsonaro’s nomination as minority leader reflects ongoing disputes over parliamentary rules and representation. At the same time, President Lula is thinking of bringing Guilherme Boulos into the cabinet, strengthening ties with social movements ahead of the 2026 elections. In the economic sphere, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has intensified his criticism of the Central Bank’s stance on interest rates, showing the need for more flexibility to respond to the current economic conditions.
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First Chamber of the Supreme Federal Court
Minister Flávio Dino was elected on Tuesday (23/09) as president of the First Chamber of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), the division responsible for handling cases tied to the attempted coup. The election marked the end of Justice Cristiano Zanin’s one-year mandate, began in October 2024. Dino commended Zanin for his role in the trial that sentenced former President Jair Bolsonaro to 27 years and 3 months in prison. With this transition, Dino will now direct the judgment of other groups involved in the coup attempt, with their cases already close to resolution. His leadership is expected to bring continuity, while also ensuring the timely conclusion of politically sensitive trials.
Presidency of the Supreme Federal Court (STF)
Minister Luiz Edson Fachin will be inaugurated as president of the STF on Monday (29/09), becoming the 51st figure to hold this office. He will succeed Justice Luís Roberto Barroso, while Minister Alexandre de Moraes will take over as vice president. Their two-year term will shape the Court’s institutional tone. The Court’s president has significant authority to set the plenary agenda, deciding which cases the justices will hear. Fachin, noted for his discreet and reserved style, is expected to prioritize stability and moderation, contrasting with Barroso’s more outspoken approach. This change may reduce tensions in the Court while reinforcing its institutional role.
Minority Leader
Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies Hugo Motta (Republicans) rejected the opposition’s attempt to nominate Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL) as minority leader. Eduardo has been in the United States since February and did not return even after his official leave expired in July. The opposition had sought to shield him from losing his mandate due to absenteeism by granting him the leadership position. However, the Chamber’s Secretary-General, Bruno Sampaio, emphasized that parliamentary leadership requires active and physical presence in Brazil. In his view, Eduardo’s absence makes him incapable of fulfilling the responsibilities of the post, rendering the candidacy invalid under the rules of procedure.
Ministry for Boulos
President Lula (Workers’ Party) reaffirmed his intention to bring Congressman Guilherme Boulos (PSOL-SP) into a cabinet role, aiming to deepen the government’s links with social movements as the 2026 elections approach. During a meeting with party leaders at the Palácio da Alvorada on Saturday (20/09), Lula reiterated his interest in placing Boulos in a prominent position within the Executive branch. The most likely option under consideration is the General Secretariat of the Presidency, although officials caution that a formal announcement has not yet been made. This move is seen as a political strategy to consolidate support among progressive movements and expand Lula’s coalition base.
Interest Rates
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad openly criticized the Central Bank’s decision to maintain the benchmark Selic rate at 15% per year, arguing that such a high rate is no longer compatible with the current economic scenario. On the same day, the Central Bank released the minutes of its Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting, signaling that the rate would remain at this level for a “very prolonged” period to ensure inflation remains within the 3% target. Haddad countered that inflation trends already align with the target system, creating room for gradual cuts. He stressed that maintaining elevated rates could harm growth and weigh on employment, suggesting that a recalibration of monetary policy is both possible and necessary.
Analysis:
Brazil’s current political and institutional moment reflects a delicate balance between judicial continuity, congressional disputes, and executive maneuvering ahead of the 2026 elections. In the Judiciary, the rise of Flávio Dino to the presidency of the First Chamber and Luiz Edson Fachin to the command of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) suggests a phase of greater stability and moderation, reducing the prominence of confrontational rhetoric while keeping coup-related trials on track. This institutional posture may help preserve the Court’s legitimacy at a time of polarized politics.
In Congress, Speaker Hugo Motta’s decision to block Eduardo Bolsonaro’s nomination as minority leader shows how internal rules are being used to contain political maneuvers linked to absenteeism and representation. Simultaneously, President Lula’s intention to appoint Guilherme Boulos to a cabinet position reflects a calculated strategy: strengthening ties with social movements and broadening his coalition as he prepares for 2026.
On the economic front, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad’s growing criticism of the Central Bank reveals tension between the government’s political agenda and the institution’s conservative stance on inflation control. With interest rates frozen at 15%, the debate illustrates the challenge of reconciling monetary orthodoxy with demands for growth and job creation.
