In 2023, Brazil had a record number of deaths caused by dengue and there was also a 15.8% increase in cases. This comes after a new record, was achieved in 2022. Meanwhile, authorities from the Ministry of Health estimate that, in 2024, the Central-West Region, and the states of Espírito Santo and Minas Gerais will suffer from an epidemic of the disease. Other diseases are also of concern, such as Chikungunya, which, in 2023, increased by 142.6% in the state of São Paulo. The forecast is that cases of this disease will also increase in 2024.
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Record in 2023
Brazil broke a record of deaths from dengue in 2023. Data released by the Health Ministry, through the Notifiable Diseases Information System (Sinan online), reveals that there were 1,079 deaths from the disease as of 27 December.
In the historical series released by the ministry, also based on Sinan, the previous highest number of deaths in a full year occurred in 2022, when it reached 1,053 cases. Then comes 2015, with 986 deaths.
Dengue cases in Brazil increased by 15.8% in 2023 compared to 2022. Infections rose from 1.3 million to 1.6 million. The fatality rate was 0.07% in both years, totaling 1,053 confirmed deaths in 2023 and 999 last year.
Epidemic in 2024
The Central-West Region of Brazil is expected to register an epidemic level of dengue in 2024, according to a forecast released on 8 December by the Health Ministry.
Another warning released by authorities concerns the Southeast Region, especially the states of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo, where there is an epidemic potential for dengue.
In the South, Paraná was classified as a state with very high potential for dengue cases, and, in the Northeast, cases are expected to increase, but below the epidemic threshold.
Proliferation
Data from the Aedes aegypti Infestation Index Rapid Survey (LIRAa) indicate that, in 2023, 74.8% of dengue mosquito breeding sites were in homes, such as in plant pots and dishes, returnable bottles, drip pans, defrosting containers in refrigerators, drinking fountains in general, small ornamental fountains and materials in construction warehouses (stocked toilets and pipes, for example). Elevated water storage deposits (water tanks) and at ground level (barrels, wells) appear as the second largest breeding ground for mosquitoes.
Recent Death in Angra dos Reis
On Thursday (28/12), a woman aged approximately 47 years old, resident of Vilage, in the neighborhood of Jacuecanga, in Angra dos Reis, on the Costa Verde, died, suspected of having Hemorrhagic Dengue. This is the second death in the municipality, which has already recorded more than 500 confirmed cases of the disease, with more than 2,000 suspects being investigated.
Chikungunya
Until December 2023, 145.3 thousand Chikungunya cases were reported in the country, with an incidence rate of 71.6 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. Compared to the same period in 2022, when 264.3 thousand cases were reported (123.9 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants), the reduction was 45%. This year, 100 deaths caused by the disease were confirmed. The highest incidences are in Minas Gerais, Tocantins and Espírito Santo.
Chikungunya in São Paulo
As of 1 December, the state of São Paulo recorded 2,167 cases of chikungunya and 12 deaths. In the same period last year, there were 893 confirmations, but no deaths. In the state, the increase reaches 142.6%. The disease is also transmitted by the Aedes Aegypti mosquito.
In the capital of São Paulo, until 23 November, there were 25 cases compared to 13 in the same period in 2022 — an increase of 92%. There were no deaths.
The expectation is for an increase in cases in 2024, with a high chance of an increase in cities where it is already endemic and spreading to those that have not yet been registered. The warning applies to São Paulo and other large metropolises.
Zika
Zika data was collected by the Ministry until the end of April 2023. In total, 7,275 thousand cases of the disease were reported, with an incidence rate of 3.6 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. There was an increase of 1% compared to the same period in 2022, when 7,218 thousand occurrences of the disease were reported. To date, there are no records of deaths from Zika.
Vaccines
The National Commission for the Incorporation of Technologies into the Unified Health System (Conitec) is leading the process of incorporating the dengue vaccine into the Unified Health System (SUS). One of the impediments at the moment is the price of the vaccine, which costs twice the value of the most expensive vaccines offered by the SUS, around R$170.
The government is expected to define groups and locations to be covered by the vaccine and consider the regions with the highest incidence and transmission of dengue and the age groups at greatest risk for worsening of the disease.
Wolbachia Method
The federal government also announced the expansion of the so-called Wolbachia method. The strategy consists of releasing Aedes aegypti injected with the Wolbachia bacteria, which inhibits disease transmission.
Source: Agência Brasil [1], [2], [3]; O Dia [1], [2]; Folha de SP.
