The second round of the 2024 municipal elections highlighted the strength of center and center-right parties and revealed a diminishing polarization in Brazilian politics. Both President Lula (PT) and former President Jair Bolsonaro proved to be relatively ineffective as political endorsers, signaling a shift in the influence of these two figures. The PSD, led by Gilberto Kassab, showed strong performance and is set to govern the majority of Brazil’s population starting in 2025. In the runoff, the PT competed in four state capitals but won in only one—Fortaleza. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s PL secured victories in just two of the nine capitals where it competed in the second round: Cuiabá and Aracaju.
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PSD to Govern Most Cities
Founded in 2011 by Gilberto Kassab, the PSD emerged from the 2024 municipal elections as the party that will govern the majority of the Brazilian population, overtaking the MDB, which had held this position for at least two decades. Known for its centrist and independent stance, the PSD has grown steadily since its first election in 2012, winning a total of 887 municipalities this year. Among state capitals, the PSD will govern Rio de Janeiro, with Eduardo Paes re-elected in the first round, and Belo Horizonte, with Fuad Noman.
PT Victory in Fortaleza
The election of Evandro Leitão in Fortaleza marked a significant moment for the PT, reversing a downward trend in capital city elections that began in 2008. In 2020, the PT had its worst showing in capitals, failing to elect a single mayor. The race between Evandro Leitão (PT) and André Fernandes (PL) was the tightest of the second round in the capitals, with the lead narrowing to a single vote at one point. This victory secured PT’s control of two capitals in the Northeast.
Bolsonaro’s PL Performance
The PL achieved a notable milestone by electing mayors in four state capitals, marking its best result in capital cities since its founding. Of the party’s nine candidates in the runoff, only two secured wins: Abílio Brunini in Cuiabá and Emília Corrêa, who became the first female mayor of Aracaju.Among the seven capitals where the PL lost on Sunday (27/10), four were close contests in which the party’s candidates had led in the first round but ultimately fell short in the second. Nevertheless, the PL stood out among the top parties in terms of securing mayorships in major cities across the country.
Ricardo Nunes Re-elected in São Paulo
In São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes (MDB) was re-elected as mayor with 59.35% of the valid votes, defeating Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) in a race marked by record absenteeism for a second round in the city—over 31% of voters did not go to the polls. Nunes’ victory was celebrated by the alliance between the MDB and Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’ group (Republicans) without Jair Bolsonaro’s direct involvement. Although Bolsonaro’s party, the PL, was part of the coalition, the former president had no active role in Nunes’ campaign. This result in São Paulo highlights the strength of the center-right coalition and Bolsonaro’s distance from certain local races.
Analysis:
The recent runoff elections in Brazil highlighted significant shifts in the political landscape, with center and center-right parties gaining prominence. Both the PL and PT, led by former President Jair Bolsonaro and President Lula, respectively, faced notable challenges. Despite the PL entering the second round with 22 candidates and the PT with 13, both parties saw most of their candidates defeated—15 losses for the PL and 9 for the PT. These setbacks suggest a decline in the influence of personal endorsements from both Lula and Bolsonaro.
The election results reveal a less polarized political landscape, where more pragmatic, centrist alliances—often called the “Centrão”—are gaining strength. This political center benefits from access to substantial campaign resources, including government support and significant funding through parliamentary amendments, which reinforce its influence.
