CONGRESS RESUME WORK AND TAKE ON IMPORTANT NEGOCIATIONS

Tax Reform Regulation

This bill, which deals with changes to the tax system, focuses on the functioning of the management committee for the new Tax on Goods and Services, the IBS, which will replace the current ICMS and ISS. The first bill was approved by the House in July and is now awaiting analysis in the Senate.

Lira’s Succession

With the return of legislative work and the resumption of discussions about the succession in the Chamber, the Speaker of the House, Arthur Lira (PP), will have to make new gestures to the ruralist and evangelical groups. The two groups are considered essential to support Lira’s desire to create a consensus around a single candidate.

Lira told allies that he would decide this month who would be the candidate of his political group. Lira’s closest allies are trying their best to avoid possible splits and want the names that were overlooked to be on the side of the one who is chosen. The Planalto Palace, in turn, is still observing the negotiations from a distance and wants to avoid possible setbacks in the Chamber’s agenda, which has important projects ahead of it this semester.

Anti-Drug Law

An important issue for the evangelical group is the Proposed Constitutional Amendment (PEC) that includes the criminalization of drug possession in the Constitution, regardless of the quantity—members of the evangelical and ruralist groups want the issue to be voted on in the second half of the year. The text was approved by the Senate in April, in a direct clash with the Supreme Federal Court (STF), which was judging the matter.

Ruralist Bench

Part of the ruralist bench’s list of priorities for this semester is still being processed by the House’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) and refers to the actions of the Landless Workers’ Movement (MST). One of the bills creates a list of people involved in occupations of public or private properties, the so-called “Invaders’ Registry.” Another proposal allows that, in cases of collective invasion, the owner of the property can use force to remove the invaders from the site within a year and one day of the act, regardless of a current court order.

Amnesty PEC

The proposal removes punishments for parties that failed to meet the quota of public funds for candidates based on race and gender. The text also no longer holds parties accountable for failures in their financial reporting. According to the text, the parties will apply 30% of the resources to black candidates. Currently, there is an obligation, imposed by the Superior Electoral Court, to divide the funds proportionally according to the number of white and black candidates—in 2022, about half of the candidates were black.

Analysis:

The resumption of legislative work in Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies and Senate is set to have significant repercussions on the country’s political landscape. The push to regulate tax reform could streamline economic governance but may also spark tensions between federal and state governments over revenue distribution. The Amnesty PEC, if passed, could undermine efforts to enforce racial and gender equity in politics, potentially eroding public trust in the electoral system.

Additionally, Arthur Lira’s political maneuvering, particularly his alignment with ruralist and evangelical benches, could shape legislative priorities in ways that bolster conservative policies, particularly around land rights and drug criminalization. This could intensify social conflicts and deepen polarization, especially regarding land reform and public security.

The upcoming weeks will be critical in determining whether these legislative efforts will consolidate or destabilize Brazil’s governance structures, as the government navigates these contentious issues amid shifting political alliances.

Sources: O Globo [1], [2], [3].