This Content Is Only For Subscribers
To unlock this content, subscribe to INTERLIRA Reports.
Financial market economists raised their inflation estimate for this year from 5.79% to 5.89%. It was the tenth consecutive high of the indicator. The information is contained in the “Focus” report, released by the Central Bank. More than 100 financial institutions were heard about the projections for the economy.
For this year, the central inflation target was set at 3.25% by the National Monetary Council (CMN) and will be considered formally met if it fluctuates between 1.75% and 4.75%. If confirmed, this will be the third year in a row that the inflation target has been exceeded, that is, in which the IPCA is above the ceiling set by the target system. In 2022, inflation amounted to 5.79%.
For 2024, the financial market’s inflation projection rose from 4% to 4.02%. It was the fifth rise followed by the forecast. The inflation target for next year, defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), is 3% and will be considered achieved if it oscillates between 1.5% and 4.5%.
Gross Domestic Product
For the 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, the financial market raised its forecast from 0.76% to 0.80%. GDP is the sum of all goods and services produced in the country. The indicator serves to measure the evolution of the economy. For 2024, the growth forecast remained stable at 1.5%.
Interest rate
The financial market maintained expectations for the economy’s basic interest rate, the Selic, stable at 12.75% per year by the end of 2023. Currently, the Selic rate is already at 13.75% per year. The Copom has also been signaling that interest rates will remain high for a longer period.
