Brazil recorded a decline in homicides for the fifth consecutive year. In 2025, the country registered 34,086 cases of violent deaths, down from 38,374 in 2024, according to figures compiled by the Ministry of Justice and Public Security. This represents a reduction of approximately 11% year over year. The total of 34,086 deaths, however, does not yet include data for the month of December from the states of São Paulo and Paraíba, which had not been incorporated into the federal database at the time of publication.
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Data Still Missing
The figures from São Paulo and Paraíba have not yet been uploaded to the federal system, and there is no fixed deadline for this process. Between January and November, São Paulo registered an average of 228 violent deaths per month, while Paraíba recorded an average of 79 cases per month. If December follows the same pattern in both states, around 300 additional cases would be added to the national total. Even with this adjustment, the annual decline in violent deaths would still stand at approximately 10.4%.
Violent Deaths
The category of violent deaths includes intentional homicides, femicides, robberies resulting in death, and bodily injuries followed by death. The data is compiled by the state Public Security Secretariats and forwarded to the federal government, which is responsible for consolidating and publishing the national statistics.
Reduction in Murders Is a Trend
The decline observed in 2025 marks the fifth consecutive year of reduction in violent deaths, from 2021 through 2025, with an accumulated drop of about 25% since 2020, the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic. The highest number in the historical series was recorded in 2017, when the country surpassed 60,000 murders. After that peak, the figures fell in 2018 and 2019, rose again in 2020, and have declined every year since.
Changes in Gangs
Rafael Alcadipani, a professor at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation and a member of the Brazilian Public Security Forum, explains that changes in the dynamics of criminal organizations have contributed to the decline. According to him, there have been fewer territorial disputes and armed conflicts between gangs. “It was a year in which organized crime was, so to speak, calmer in terms of confrontation than in previous periods. In addition, there are public policies in place, and as elections approach, security actions tend to intensify. All of these factors help explain the reduction,” he said.
Variations by Region
The reduction in homicides was observed across all five regions of the country:
- South: a 22% drop, from 3,935 violent deaths in 2024 to 3,055 in 2025;
- Central-West: an 18% decrease, from 2,682 to 2,204;
- North: an 11% reduction, from 4,304 to 3,829;
- Northeast: a 10% decline, from 17,052 to 15,412;
- Southeast: an 8% decrease, from 10,401 to 9,586.
Largest Reductions
At the state level, the most significant declines were recorded in Mato Grosso do Sul (-28%), Paraná (-24%), and Rio Grande do Sul (-24%). In contrast, increases were observed in Tocantins (17%), Rio Grande do Norte (14%), and Roraima (9%). In absolute numbers, Bahia (3,900), Rio de Janeiro (3,581), and Pernambuco (3,023) led the ranking of violent deaths. The lowest totals were recorded in Acre (204), Amapá (179), and Roraima (139).
Murder Rate per 100,000 Inhabitants
Ceará (32.6), Pernambuco (31.6), and Alagoas (29.4) recorded the highest rates of violent deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The national average fell to 15.97 in 2025, down from 18.05 murders per 100,000 inhabitants in 2024.
Record Number of Femicides in 2025
Despite the overall decline in violent deaths, femicides reached a new record in 2025. From January to December, 1,470 cases were registered, surpassing the previous record of 1,464 set in 2024. On average, at least four women were killed per day over the year. This figure is expected to rise further once December data from São Paulo and Paraíba are fully incorporated into the federal government’s database.
Analysis:
Brazil’s fifth consecutive annual decline in violent deaths confirms a sustained downward trend rather than a short-term fluctuation, even after accounting for the missing December data from São Paulo and Paraíba. An annual reduction of around 10 to 11 percent, following similar declines since 2021, suggests that structural factors are at play. These include changes in the behavior of criminal organizations, reduced frequency of large-scale territorial disputes, and more predictable patterns of violence.
At the same time, the regional and state-level variations show that this national improvement is uneven and fragile. Significant reductions in the South and Central-West contrast with increases in states such as Tocantins, Rio Grande do Norte, and Roraima, indicating that local dynamics, border pressures, and criminal reorganization continue to shape violence patterns.
The record number of femicides in 2025 exposes a critical limitation of the overall homicide reduction. While public security strategies and shifts in organized crime dynamics may be reducing street-level and gang-related killings, they have not translated into effective prevention of gender-based violence. This divergence strengthens the understanding that femicide follows distinct social and domestic patterns that require targeted policies.
Sources: G1.
