The Lula administration faces a critical moment marked by shifting political dynamics, increasing challenges in Congress, and growing scrutiny of its economic policies. A new Quaest poll shows a slight drop in disapproval and a rise in approval, narrowing the gap to its lowest level since early 2025. Yet, the government has suffered recent defeats in Congress, with setbacks tied to the INSS CPI and the approval of the printed vote, intensifying criticism of both the administration’s negotiators and the leadership of Speakers Hugo Motta and Davi Alcolumbre. At the same time, Lula’s flagship tax exemption proposal for those earning up to R$5,000 gains traction in the Chamber, while the Supreme Court investigates irregularities in Pix amendments, further pressuring Congress. Against this backdrop, Lula prepares for a ministerial meeting to accelerate policy delivery and public works, aware that the 2026 election campaign is approaching and political capital must be consolidated.
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Lula’s Government Approval
Disapproval of the Lula administration (Workers’ Party) fell two points to 51%, according to a Quaest poll released on Wednesday (20/08). Approval of the president’s administration rose three points to 46%. The margin of error is plus or minus two points, with a 95% confidence level. The difference between approval and disapproval is now the smallest since January 2025, when there was a technical tie: 49% disapproved of the Lula administration, while 47% approved that month.
Criticism of the Leaders
The defeats inflicted on the Lula administration (Workers’ Party) last week (17–23/08) triggered a witch hunt within the Planalto Palace’s political coordination team and raised doubts about the leadership of House Speaker Hugo Motta (Republicans) and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil). The opposition’s control of the INSS CPI and the approval of the printed vote in a Senate committee on Wednesday (20/08) reinforced Lula’s setbacks, even with support from within his base. These results undermined the government’s negotiators in Congress. This time, however, the setback also affected Motta and Alcolumbre, who had worked alongside the government and pledged to manage the CPI environment.
Tax Issues
The bill exempting Brazilians earning up to R$5,000 from income tax, Lula’s main electoral bet for 2026, is moving toward approval in the Chamber of Deputies with broad party support, as few are willing to oppose the popular measure. The opposition, however, aims to dilute the government’s political gains by trying to overturn compensatory measures intended to offset the R$100 billion cost projected through 2028. This effort would effectively create a fiscal bomb for the president, who is already struggling to maintain balance after the fiscal adjustments introduced by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad.
Pix Amendments
Minister Flávio Dino of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) ordered on Sunday (24/08) that the Federal Police open an investigation into 964 parliamentary amendments lacking registered work plans. The amendments total R$694 million and will be reviewed by the Federal Court of Auditors (TCU), which will identify each amendment and forward the findings for investigation. The case stems from the Supreme Court’s decision requiring Pix amendments—money transfers without predetermined purposes—to include detailed work plans specifying execution before release.
Ministerial Meeting
President Lula (Workers’ Party) will convene top officials on Tuesday (26/08) for the second ministerial meeting of 2025. He is expected to emphasize the need for policy delivery and the inauguration of public works projects. With the 2026 election campaign drawing closer, the Planalto Palace is increasingly concerned about the pace of government action. During the meeting, the Minister of the Secretariat of Social Communication (Secom), Sidônio Palmeira, will present the administration’s new slogan, replacing “Union and Reconstruction,” in use since the beginning of Lula’s term. Sidônio will also call on ministers to coordinate their communication strategies to avoid crises and amplify the positive impact of Workers’ Party policies.
Analysis:
The Lula administration is entering a delicate phase where political management and economic credibility intersect in ways that will directly shape its ability to govern ahead of the 2026 elections. The recent Quaest poll offers a modest relief with a narrowing gap between approval and disapproval, but this improvement in perception contrasts with tangible defeats in Congress that expose the limits of the government’s negotiation strategy. The setbacks tied to the INSS CPI, and the printed vote not only weaken Planalto’s coordination but also cast doubt on the reliability of congressional allies like Hugo Motta and Davi Alcolumbre. These fractures suggest that, despite short-term gains in public opinion, the administration is struggling to build a consistent legislative base capable of supporting its priorities.
At the same time, Lula’s tax exemption proposal stands as both a political opportunity and a fiscal risk. Its popularity makes it difficult for opponents to reject, but the projected costs could strain public finances if compensatory measures are undermined. Parallel to this, the Supreme Court’s investigation into Pix amendments introduces another layer of uncertainty, as it places Congress under scrutiny while raising the stakes for government negotiations. Against this backdrop, the upcoming ministerial meeting is not only about aligning communication strategies but also about demonstrating the capacity to deliver concrete results.
Sources: O Globo [1], [2], [3], [4]; A Folha de SP [1], [2], G1.
