Brazil’s political and institutional landscape is experiencing a period of transition marked by shifting public opinion, reforms in Congress, new economic initiatives, and ongoing tensions with the United States. While recent surveys show a modest rise in President Lula’s approval ratings, lawmakers are advancing an Administrative Reform aimed at making public spending more efficient, and the Federal Revenue Service is preparing a groundbreaking tax platform to modernize collection and curb evasion. On the international stage, Lula prepares for his third address to the United Nations General Assembly amid strained relations with Washington, as the Supreme Federal Court seeks to reduce domestic tensions stemming from coup plot investigations and looming trials of Bolsonaro allies.
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Government Approval
A Datafolha survey released on Thursday (11/09) indicates that 33% of Brazilians consider the Lula administration to be excellent or good, while 38% see it as bad or terrible. The numbers show a modest increase in positive evaluations compared to July. Lula currently has a higher approval rating than Jair Bolsonaro at the same point in his term, with 48% of respondents approving of his administration and 48% disapproving.
Administrative Reform
With the government seeking to improve its performance indicators, the Administrative Reform has become a priority for House Speaker Hugo Motta (Republicans). The reform aims not only to reorganize public sector positions and standardize salary rules, but also to introduce mechanisms for greater efficiency in public spending. Proposals include mandatory annual reviews of government expenditures and the creation of a system to evaluate public policies, providing a basis for decisions on maintaining, eliminating, or creating programs. Congressman Pedro Paulo (PSD-RJ), the bill’s rapporteur, is preparing to present these measures to the special committee.
New Platform
As part of its economic modernization agenda, the Federal Revenue Service announced the development of a pioneering technological platform for processing tax payments on goods and services. Designed to support the new value-added tax (VAT) introduced by the 2024 consumption tax reform, the system will be 150 times larger than PIX, processing an estimated 70 billion documents per year. The platform will calculate consumption taxes, allow deductions for previously paid taxes, and even provide cashback for low-income families. Authorities also expect it to reduce tax evasion and improve efficiency in tax collection.
Lula in the US
Amid strained relations with Washington, President Lula (PT) is preparing to travel to New York for his third appearance at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) since returning to office. Scheduled for September 23, the trip is considered a diplomatic priority, particularly as Brazil prepares to host COP30 in Belém, Pará, in November. The visit comes at a difficult moment: the administration of President Donald Trump recently imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Brazilian products in retaliation for the conviction of Jair Bolsonaro for attempted coup d’état, revoked visas of Supreme Court justices, and applied the Magnitsky Act against Justice Alexandre de Moraes.
Reducing Tensions
While Lula manages the external front, the Supreme Federal Court (STF) continues to navigate the political consequences of the coup plot investigations. Having already convicted Bolsonaro and seven allies, the Court still faces upcoming trials, potential new arrests, and ongoing investigations into Bolsonarism. Internally, justices hope to resolve the bulk of coup-related cases by year’s end, thereby reducing friction ahead of the 2026 election cycle. The imminent inauguration of Justice Edson Fachin as Court president is expected to bring a more discreet leadership style, though sensitive cases, including inquiries into congressional amendments led by Justice Flávio Dino, may still generate turbulence.
Analysis:
Brazil’s current political moment reflects a delicate balance between modest government gains and persistent sources of tension. The rise in Lula’s approval ratings, though limited, gives the administration some breathing space as it advances reforms meant to modernize state structures and improve fiscal efficiency. The Administrative Reform and the creation of a new tax platform point to a strategy of institutional strengthening, aimed at both reducing structural inefficiencies and signaling credibility to markets. If successfully implemented, these measures could improve the government’s capacity to deliver services and reinforce economic stability, but they face significant political negotiation in Congress, where resistance from different sectors may dilute their impact.
At the same time, international and judicial pressures illustrate how Brazil’s domestic politics remain intertwined with global and institutional challenges. Tensions with Washington, fueled by U.S. sanctions and tariffs, complicate Lula’s diplomatic agenda at the UN and may affect Brazil’s positioning ahead of COP30. Domestically, the Supreme Court’s effort to close coup-related cases shows the central role of the judiciary in stabilizing the political environment, but also risks prolonging polarization.
