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President Lula will still need to negotiate with members of the powerful political group known as “Centrão” to have a solid support base in Congress, even after the distribution on Thursday (29) of 9 ministries for Social Democratic Party (PSD), Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) and Brazil Union (UB) — center and right-wing parties that had not yet received ministries to lead.
Support in the Congress
If all congressmen from the left and from the three parties decided to support the President, he would have 287 seats in the Chamber and 47 in the Senate. The number guarantees a majority, but it is insufficient to approve amendments to the Constitution (308 and 49, respectively).
However, it is rare to see all members of a party following the leaders’ directives. The UB, for example, which is the merger of the Social Liberal Party (PSL) – Bolsonaro’s former party – and the Democrats (DEM) – former rival of the PT –, will likely have several of its members voting against the Government.
In addition, MDB, PSD and UB have parliamentarians who have remained close to the political movement around former President Bolsonaro over the last four years and were elected in line with him.
Opportunities to Seek More Allies
This week, the Government will start to negotiate with parties that were left out so far the second echelon of positions in ministries and other important institutions. PV, Solidarity and Avante are expected to receive attention at this stage.
The strength of Lula’s alliances will begin to be tested from February, and there will certainly be a search for dissidents from the PP and Republicans, parties that share the command of the “Centrão” with Jair Bolsonaro’s PL.
Support for the Re-election of the Congress Presidents
On Thursday (29/12), the leader of the Government in Congress, Senator Randolfe Rodrigues, said that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva supports the re-elections of Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco and Chamber of Deputies President Arthur Lira. The elections for the House and Senate commands will be held in early February, on the return of the Legislative recess. Support for both strengthens Lula’s political alliances.
