A Genial/Quaest poll released on Wednesday (11/02) points to a stable but polarized political landscape: President Lula’s approval remains in a technical tie with disapproval, even as he continues to lead potential runoff matchups. In parallel, public anxiety about violence has eased in recent months—though it still ranks as the country’s main concern—while Brasília debates labor reform with the push to end the 6×1 work schedule moving through Congress. The week’s agenda was further shaped by an investigation that found illicit access and leakage of confidential tax data involving Supreme Court justices and their relatives, prompting Federal Police raids in three states.
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Approval of Lula’s Government
The Quaest survey released on Wednesday (11/02) shows that 49% of respondents disapprove of President Lula’s (PT) performance, while 45% approve. The results indicate a technical tie within the margin of error.
- Disapprove: 49% (49% in January and 49% in December)
- Approve: 45% (47% in January and 48% in December)
- Don’t know/didn’t answer: 6% (4% in January and 3% in December)
The figures show that disapproval has remained stable since the last quarter of last year. The survey also indicates that President Lula (PT) continues to lead in second-round scenarios, with advantages ranging from five to 19 points. The narrowest gap is against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL): 43% to 38%.
Concern about Violence
Brazilians’ concern about violence has fallen by 11 percentage points since November 2025, according to a Genial/Quaest survey released on Wednesday (11/02). After rising from 30% in October to 38% in November, the index has now dropped to 27%, its lowest level since September. On October 28 last year, Rio de Janeiro Civil and Military Police carried out a major operation in the Alemão and Penha complexes, both in the city’s North Zone, which left 122 dead. Described as the deadliest police operation in the country’s history, it resulted in 117 suspects and five police officers killed. Since then, the share of respondents naming violence as the country’s main problem has declined: 36% in December 31% in January, and 27% in February. Despite the drop, violence remains the top concern among those interviewed. Social issues rank second, fluctuating over the period and reaching 20% in February. Corruption has also increased in recent months, rising from 13% in November to 17% in January and holding at that level in February. Health, up 10% in November and December, rose to 13% this month. The economy continued to fall compared with October (16%) and November (15%), ending February at 12%. Education remained relatively stable, varying between 4% and 7% over the period and registering 6% in the last two months.
Work Schedule
The Planalto Palace described as a “positive gesture” the decision by the president of the Chamber, Hugo Motta (Republicanos), to move forward with discussions on ending the 6×1 work schedule. On Monday (09/02), Motta sent the Proposed Constitutional Amendment (PEC) on the issue to the Constitution and Justice Commission (CCJ). President Lula’s government, however, is expected to maintain its plan to submit a bill on the subject to Congress. On Tuesday (10/02), Hugo Motta said the expectation is to vote in May on the PEC that would abolish the 6×1 scale.
Data Leak
An investigation by the Federal Revenue Service concluded that confidential data belonging to Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices and their families was leaked. Following the findings, the Federal Police was called in and carried out search-and-seizure raids on Tuesday (17/02) in three states, targeting four Revenue Service employees. According to a statement released by the STF, “several and multiple illicit accesses” to the Revenue Service system were identified, followed by the leak of confidential information. The names of the victims were not disclosed, but Viviane Barci, wife of Alexandre de Moraes, is among those affected. Reports say her law firm was hired by Banco Master for R$3.6 million per month to assist in defending the institution’s interests. Other members of the Court were also informed that their relatives’ data had been improperly accessed.
Analysis:
The latest Genial/Quaest polling suggests a presidency that remains resilient but constrained within a polarized electorate. With approval and disapproval effectively tied within the margin of error, Lula maintains competitive strength in simulated runoff scenarios yet lacks broad surplus legitimacy. This configuration typically limits room for ambitious structural reforms, as political capital must be carefully rationed.
Public concern about violence, while still the leading national issue, appears to have eased from the peak recorded after major security operations in Rio de Janeiro. This decline may reflect a combination of reduced media intensity, normalization effects, and the public’s shifting attention toward social and economic matters.
The debate over ending the 6×1 work schedule illustrates how labor reform is emerging as a politically sensitive agenda item. Moving the proposal through the Chamber’s procedural stages signals responsiveness to social demands, yet its fiscal and productivity implications will be closely scrutinized. Meanwhile, the confirmed leak of confidential tax data involving Supreme Court justices and their relatives introduces an institutional stress point. Unauthorized access to sensitive systems undermines trust in state capacity and fuels narratives of politicization.
Sources: G1 [1], [2], [3], [4]; O Globo [1], [2]; A Folha de SP.
