Financial market analysts reduced the inflation estimate for this year from 6,61% to 6,40%. The Economy Ministry is more optimistic and lowered the expected inflation from 7,2% to 6,3% in 2022, and that for 2023 remained stable at 4,5%. The inflation target for this year, set by the National Monetary Council (CMN), is 3,5% and will be considered met if it oscillates between 2% and 5%. However, the Central Bank has already admitted that it will exceed the target ceiling, just as it did in 2021. The target set by CMN for 2023 is 3,25%, and may oscillate between 1,75% and 4,75%. The financial market expects an inflation of 5,17% for 2023.
Selic Rate (Brazilian Basic Interest Rate)
Currently, the Selic is at 13,75% per year, the highest percentage in the last six years. For the end of 2023, market expectations for the Selic rate remained at 11,25%.
Gross Domestic Product
Regarding to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the forecast of bank economists is that the Brazilian economy will grow 2,39% in 2022, against the 2,26% forecast previously. The Economy Ministry, however, increased the GDP growth expectation from 2% to 2,7% in 2022. For 2023, the forecast made by analysts has advanced from 0,47% to 0,50%, but the expected by the Ministry is higher, 2,5%.
