The advancement of initiatives from the Liberal Party (PL) and other members of the opposition in the Federal Chamber has been understood by part of congressmen as a way for Arthur Lira (PP) to retain their support and strengthen the candidate he chooses to replace him in the election this year. At the same time, the measures put pressure on the government’s party, the Workers’ Party (PT), which, along with other left-wing parties, faces obstacles to materialize actions against projects that harm their image and political power, such as the one that forbids abortion – Bill 1904 – even of a fetus that is the result of rape after the 22nd week of pregnancy.
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Urgent Approval
The fact that Lira gave urgency to texts that go against the government’s position, such as Bill 1904 and the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) that criminalizes the possession of any quantity of drugs, some of the government’s allies in the Chamber believe that the President of the Federal Chamber wants to show that he has strength and can control the direction of the debate in the Chamber even without the support of the government and the PT.
Defeats
The Palácio do Planalto is going through successive weeks of defeats in votes considered ideological, which have favored the agenda proposed by the opposition. In addition to the PEC of the Drugs, the government also suffered setbacks in the Congress session two weeks ago, when President Lula’s veto on the central point of the law that restricts the temporary leaving of prisoners was overturned and when Bolsonaro’s veto on an excerpt from the new National Security Law that toughened repression against fake news was maintained.
Definition in Two Months
Lira has already said that he intends to announce his support for succession in the Chamber in August. Parliamentarians have assessed that the leader of Brazil Union, Elmar Nascimento (BA), is the closest to the head of the House, but they see a scenario of uncertainty because they understand that the dispute is still open and Elmar has not become unanimity among legislators. The government has not yet decided who it will support in the dispute, but a PT wing in the Chamber has preached unity with the name that Lira chooses.
Abortion PEC
The project that equates abortion after the 22nd week of pregnancy with homicide, the urgency of which was approved very fast in the Chamber, generated reactions on different fronts, with mobilizations on social media against its approval and also protests on the streets of Brazilian capitals.
Faced with the government’s silence, the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), criticized the accelerated processing of the project and signaled that the matter will be analyzed more slowly in the neighboring House if it moves forward. Amid the wear and tear, the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), compromised and indicated the possibility of changes to the text.
Analysis:
Brazilian politics has been a scene of fierce clashes and strategic maneuvers, especially visible in the recent movement of Arthur Lira, president of the Chamber of Deputies. The initiatives that meet Bolsonarists’ demands are read by many as a way for Lira to secure the support of the PL, the party with the largest number of deputies, and consolidate his influence in choosing his successor.
The rapid approval of texts such as the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) on drug criminalization indicates Lira’s strength and ability to control the Chamber, even without the explicit support of the government. This demonstration of power is seen as a message to the government that Lira can lead the legislative agenda according to his interests and those of his allies.
The imminent definition of Lira’s support for succession in the Chamber adds a layer of uncertainty to the political scenario. While the leader of União Brasil, Elmar Nascimento, is named as the favorite, the dispute is still open, and the government has not decided on its support.
