Brazil’s political scene is moving through a period of heightened tension marked by shifting electoral dynamics, judicial escalation, and growing pressure on key institutions. As early polls begin to outline the contours of the 2026 presidential race, internal calculations within the Lula administration point to possible changes in the economic team and campaign strategy. At the same time, Congress and the courts remain at the center of disputes over accountability for the January 8 coup attempt, with debates over sentence reductions, mandate revocations, and new criminal investigations reshaping the balance of power. Judicial decisions and police operations targeting politicians, judges, and senior officials further underscore a climate in which electoral positioning, legal reckoning, and institutional stability are increasingly intertwined.
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New Poll
President Lula (PT) leads with 46% of voting intentions against 36% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in a potential second-round scenario for the 2026 presidential election, according to a Quaest poll released on Tuesday (16/12). Compared with the previous survey that included Flávio’s name, conducted in August, Lula dropped two points, while Flávio—officially launched as a pre-candidate on December 5—rose from 32% to 36%. The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus. The poll indicates that Lula would prevail in a second round against all names tested: Flávio Bolsonaro, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), Ratinho Júnior (PSD), Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil), and Romeu Zema (Novo). This is the first survey conducted without Jair Bolsonaro’s name since the former president endorsed his son as a candidate for 2026. The study was commissioned by Genial Investimentos.
Haddad’s Departure
Finance Minister Fernando Haddad is considering leaving Lula’s administration before April, the legal deadline for stepping down from the post. According to aides speaking privately, Haddad has been signaling a possible exit as early as February and has been preparing his executive secretary, Dario Durigan, to succeed him. Haddad reportedly wants to wait for the implementation of what he considers one of his main achievements: the income tax exemption for those earning up to R$5,000 per month. Durigan has become one of the key political operators within the Ministry of Finance, maintaining direct dialogue with Congress and the Planalto Palace on fiscal and economic matters. Despite a potential departure from the ministry, Haddad has told allies he is willing to take on a central role in coordinating Lula’s 2026 campaign, including drafting the government program.
Sentence Reduction
Allies of President Lula (PT) have been urging him to veto, on January 8, 2026, the bill that reduces sentences for those convicted of participating in coup attempts, including former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL). The date would mark the three-year anniversary of the January 2023 attacks on the headquarters of the three branches of government in Brasília. According to presidential aides, the bill approved by Congress has not yet formally reached the Executive. Meanwhile, the president of the Senate’s Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ), Otto Alencar (PSD), proposed limiting the scope of the sentence-reduction bill strictly to crimes linked to the January 8 events. Although the proposal—already approved by the Chamber of Deputies—has been criticized for potentially benefiting individuals convicted of other crimes, its rapporteur, Deputy Paulinho da Força (Solidariedade), denies that interpretation. Legislative analysts argue that Alencar’s amendment could reduce the impact of the bill on Bolsonaro, while criminal law experts remain divided on its legal effects.
Mandate Revoked
A majority of the members of the Chamber of Deputies’ Board of Directors, chaired by Hugo Motta (Republicanos), decided on Thursday (18/12) to declare the revocation of the mandates of Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL) and Alexandre Ramagem (PL). The deadline for their defense expired on Wednesday (17/12). Motta had stated that he aimed to resolve both cases before the congressional recess, which begins on Friday (19/12). Eduardo Bolsonaro, who has been in the United States since March, faced revocation due to excessive absences from plenary sessions. Alexandre Ramagem fled to the United States during the Supreme Federal Court (STF) trial that sentenced him to the loss of his mandate and 16 years and one month in prison for participation in an attempted coup d’état.
Judge Arrested
Federal judge Macário Ramos Júdice Neto, from the Regional Federal Court of the 2nd Region (TRF-2), was arrested on Tuesday (16/12) by the Federal Police during the second phase of Operation Unha e Carne, which investigates the leaking of information from Operation Zargun. Macário was the magistrate who issued the arrest warrant in September for then–state deputy Thiego Raimundo dos Santos Silva, known as TH Joias. TH was arrested on charges of drug trafficking, corruption, and money laundering, accused of negotiating weapons for the Red Command (CV). According to the Federal Police, evidence suggests the judge helped leak information about the operation. Investigators say he was dining with the then-president of the Rio de Janeiro Legislative Assembly (Alerj), Rodrigo Bacellar (União Brasil), when Bacellar allegedly called TH Joias to warn him of the imminent operation.
Analysis:
Brazil is entering a phase in which electoral calculations and institutional stress are increasingly converging. Early polling for the 2026 presidential race suggests that President Lula retains a competitive advantage, but the narrowing gap with Flávio Bolsonaro points to a more polarized and uncertain contest ahead. Within the government, discussions about changes to the economic team, including the possibility of an early departure by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, signal an effort to recalibrate both policy execution and political messaging as the campaign cycle approaches. These internal movements indicate that the administration is gradually shifting from a governing posture to a more electoral one, even as macroeconomic and social challenges remain unresolved.
At the same time, disputes over accountability for the January 8 attacks continue to redefine relations between Congress, the Executive, and the Judiciary. The debate over reducing sentences for coup-related crimes, alongside the revocation of mandates held by sitting lawmakers, shows how legislative decisions are being assessed not only for their legal consequences but also for their symbolic and political impact.
Sources: G1 [1], [2], [3], [4]; A Folha de SP [1], [2], [3], [4].
