The beginning of the year places President Lula’s government at the center of a complex political and institutional landscape, marked by public opinion data, changes in key ministries, and sensitive negotiations with Congress. New polling shows Lula still leading the 2026 presidential race, despite a divided evaluation of his administration. At the same time, the appointment of a new Minister of Justice signals an effort to strengthen the government’s stance on public security and advance priority legislative proposals. On the fiscal front, the administration is moving to regulate the long-awaited Tax Reform while tightening control over parliamentary amendments in the 2026 Budget, a decision that affects relations with lawmakers ahead of an election year. These dynamics unfold alongside federal police investigations into the misuse of public funds, reinforcing an environment of political pressure, institutional scrutiny, and strategic repositioning as the government prepares for the challenges of the coming months.
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New Polls
The Lula (PT) government is rated negatively by 39% of voters, while 32% assess it positively, according to a Genial/Quaest poll released on Wednesday (14/01). Another 27% consider the administration average, and 2% did not respond or were unsure. The survey was conducted between January 8 and 11, with 2,004 in-person interviews of Brazilians aged 16 or older, and it has a margin of error of two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. Compared to the previous poll, released in December, the variations remained within the margin of error. At that time, negative evaluations stood at 38%, positive at 34%, and neutral at 25%, with 3% undecided. The same survey also shows President Lula leading the 2026 presidential race and indicates the consolidation of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in second place. Lula remains ahead in all simulated second-round scenarios, although his lead over São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) has narrowed from 10 to five percentage points.
Minister of Justice
President Lula (PT) appointed lawyer Wellington César Lima e Silva as the new Minister of Justice and Public Security, with the nomination published on Tuesday (13/01). Lima e Silva has previously held positions in PT-led administrations and had a brief stint at the head of the ministry in the past. He currently serves as head of Petrobras’ legal department, a post to which he was appointed by Lula himself. At the ministry, he will face a series of challenges, including advancing the Public Security PEC (Proposed Amendment to the Constitution) and the Anti-Faction Bill in the Chamber of Deputies. The portfolio is expected to remain under intense public scrutiny, as public security is likely to be one of the central themes of this year’s electoral cycle.
Parliamentary Amendments
The Lula administration plans to block the allocation of R$11 billion in congressional funds earmarked for parliamentary amendments in the 2026 Budget. The measure will involve spending freezes, presidential vetoes on part of the resources approved by Congress, and the reallocation of funds within the budget. The calculation includes so-called “parallel amendments,” which are formally registered as ministry resources but whose destination is effectively decided by lawmakers. According to the plan, between R$400 million and R$500 million will be vetoed outright, while the remaining amount will be curtailed through budget freezes and reallocations. Even with the cuts, total federal resources allocated to parliamentary amendments are expected to reach around R$50 billion in 2026. The move comes as Lula seeks to rebuild relations with Congress, amid efforts to strengthen ties with Chamber President Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB) and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) ahead of the election year.
Tax Reform
President Lula (PT) sanctioned, with vetoes, on Tuesday (13/01) the bill that completes the regulation of Brazil’s Tax Reform. At the same event, he launched the digital platform that will centralize the collection of the new taxes under the reformed system. Lula emphasized the importance of the reform for the country’s economic stability and long-term growth. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad stated that the new system developed by the Federal Revenue Service is expected to be among the most modern in the world and should improve the formulation and execution of public policies. Chamber of Deputies President Hugo Motta highlighted the expected productivity gains from the reform, which aims to simplify procedures and reduce complexity in the tax system.
Operation Overclean
The Federal Police carried out a new phase of Operation Overclean on Tuesday (13/01), targeting a criminal organization suspected of diverting parliamentary amendments, as well as engaging in corruption and money laundering schemes. Federal Deputy Félix Mendonça Jr. (PDT) is the main target of the operation. In total, nine search and seizure warrants were executed, authorized by Supreme Federal Court (STF) Justice Nunes Marques, in Brasília (DF) and in the cities of Salvador, Mata de São João and Vera Cruz, in the state of Bahia. This was the ninth phase of the investigation. All locations searched are linked to the congressman, including residences and offices. Mendonça Jr. was located on a farm in Entre Rios (BA), where his mobile phone was seized by investigators.
Analysis:
The current political landscape places President Lula’s administration in a position of managed resilience rather than clear momentum. Polling data suggests that while Lula maintains a competitive advantage for 2026, public opinion remains polarized, with negative evaluations outweighing positive ones and a large share of voters expressing ambivalence. This configuration indicates a government that retains electoral viability but lacks broad enthusiasm, making its performance in the coming months highly sensitive to economic delivery, public security outcomes, and political signaling.
The appointment of Wellington César Lima e Silva to the Ministry of Justice reflects an effort to stabilize a strategically critical portfolio at a moment when public security is likely to dominate the political agenda. Advancing complex legislative initiatives such as the Public Security constitutional amendment and the Anti-Faction Bill will require careful coordination with Congress, particularly in a year marked by heightened electoral calculations.
Sources: A Folha de SP [1], [2], [3]; O Globo [1], [2]; G1 [1], [2].
