The presidents of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, and Guyana, Irfaan Ali, will meet this week to debate the dispute over Essequibo, a region currently under the control of Guyana that Venezuela claims as its own and whose annexation it approved in a referendum on Sunday (03/12). In the past few days, the opposing governments have taken measures that escalated the chances of armed conflict. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was invited to the meeting to act as an observer, according to the Guyanese government.
Meeting on an Island in the Caribbean
The meeting will take place on Thursday (14/12) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, a Caribbean country, according to the local government. The country’s Prime Minister, Ralph Gonsalves, has also acted as an intermediary in the conflict and spoke on the phone with Maduro and Ali on Saturday (09/12).
Rise in Tensions
After the approval of the referendum that creates a state in Essequibo, the president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, released a new map of the country with the incorporation of the territory that today belongs to Guyana. In response, the president of Guyana, Irfaan Ali, announced this Wednesday (06/12) that he will go to the UN Security Council against the measure. In addition, on Thursday (07/12), the United States announced military exercises in Guyana, which was interpreted by Venezuela as a provocation. The latest developments in the dispute have raised tension over the possibility of an armed conflict on the border with Brazil.
Actions After the Referendum
After the approval of the referendum by Venezuelans, Maduro:
- Released a new map of the country with the incorporation of the territory, and ordered its publication and reproduction in schools and universities
- Announced a decree creating the Guayana Essequiba integral defense zone
- Presented a bill to the country’s assembly of deputies for the creation of the province
- Announced the granting of licenses for oil and gas exploration in the region by the state oil company PDVSA
- Proposed a social assistance plan for the population of Guyana Essequiba, carrying out a census and issuing identity cards to the inhabitants
- The creation of a High Commission for the Defense of Essequiba
Mercosur and UN
On Thursday morning (7), during the 63rd Mercosur Summit, in Rio de Janeiro, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) stated that he is following with “growing concern” the situation in Essequibo and that Latin America needs to be a zone of peace, and the bloc needs to act collectively for that. He also stated that Itamaraty can host as many meetings as necessary to mediate the issue. Brazil repeated the speech in the UN Security Council.
The dispute
Venezuela claims to be the true owner of Essequibo, a 160 square kilometer stretch that corresponds to around 70% of all of Guyana, where 125,000 people live. The holding of the referendum on 3 December reignited the dispute over territory and the fear of an armed conflict on the border with Brazil.
The impasse has existed for more than a century. Since the end of the 19th century, Essequibo has been under Guyanese control. Guyana claims that it owns the territory because there is a report from 1899, made in Paris, in which the current borders were established.
Venezuela claims that the territory belongs to it because it is stated in an agreement signed in 1966 with the United Kingdom itself, before Guyana’s independence, in which the arbitration report was annulled and the basis for a negotiated solution was established.
New Interests
The area is densely forested and, in 2015, oil was discovered in the region. It is estimated that Guyana has reserves of 11 billion barrels, the most significant part of which is offshore, that is, at sea.
Hague
Guyana had asked the International Court of Justice in The Hague to take emergency action to stop voting in Venezuela. The Court ruled on 1 December that Venezuela cannot attempt to annex Essequibo.
The Venezuelan government said that the decision is an interference in an internal issue and violates the Constitution and went ahead with the referendum, which was approved by 96%, according to the government.
Analysis:
Brazil is quite interested in the topic because its territory could be used in a possible war. Besides, an armed conflict could bring serious instability to the region and damages to Brazil’s position of regional leader. This could also happen even if a war does not break out, in the case another nation comes in to solve in the issue, like the United States. The installation of an US military base in Guyana is among the things that Brazil wants to prevent from happening.
An imminent conflict is unlikely, but the Venezuelan president’s stance surprised many stakeholders and forced the Brazil to take action to quickly mediated the conflict. The Brazilian diplomacy assess that Maduro is very unpredictable, especially during electoral periods, and that it is not possible to make long-term projections, which requires monitoring the situation closely, day-to-day.
