In 2024, two major crime indicators moved in opposite directions in the State of Rio de Janeiro. According to data from the Public Security Institute (ISP) released on Friday (24/01), robberies—particularly involving vehicles, cargo, and cell phones—surged in December, significantly impacting the year’s overall statistics. Meanwhile, intentional homicides reached their lowest level in recorded history, marking the first time that the state closed a year with fewer than 3,000 victims.
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Increase in Robberies
The rise in robbery cases was partly driven by a sharp increase in incidents in December. Cargo thefts, which had been declining earlier in the year, spiked by 100.4% in the last month of 2024, leading to an overall 6.6% increase for the year. A total of 3,438 cargo thefts were recorded throughout the year, with 487 cases in December alone, averaging one incident every 90 minutes.
Vehicle Theft
Vehicle theft followed a similar trend. A 74% increase in incidents in December contributed to a total of 30,934 cases in 2024, marking a 39% rise compared to 2023. The number of stolen vehicles even surpassed the number of pedestrian robberies, which totaled 30,876. Additionally, cell phone thefts rose by 38%, bus robberies increased by 14%, and the recovery of stolen or hijacked vehicles grew by 29.7% over the previous year.
Falling Deaths
In contrast to rising robbery rates, intentional homicides dropped by 11% in 2024 compared to 2023, with 2,930 victims, the lowest figure since 1991 and the first time in over three decades that the number fell below 3,000. Deaths resulting from police confrontations, categorized as police intervention deaths, also declined, with 699 victims in 2024—20% fewer than in 2023, marking the lowest level since 2015.
Analysis:
Data released by the Public Security Institute (ISP) on crime in Rio de Janeiro in 2024 reveal a paradox: while homicides reached their lowest level in history, property crimes, particularly vehicle, cargo, and cell phone thefts, rose sharply. This divergence reflects a trend observed in recent years, where a decrease in violent deaths does not necessarily translate into a safer environment for the population. The decline in homicides can be attributed to various factors, including shifts in security force strategies and less intense conflicts between criminal groups. Additionally, this reduction is not unique to Rio de Janeiro, but is part of a nationwide trend since 2018, influenced by demographic changes and evolving relationships between criminal factions.
Conversely, the surge in robberies suggests that the drop in homicides was not accompanied by stronger control over property crimes. The dramatic increase in robberies in December, particularly in cargo and vehicle thefts, indicates the operations of specialized criminal groups exploiting gaps in policing and the absence of effective strategies to curb such crimes. The persistence of this pattern highlights structural weaknesses in public security policies, which have struggled to prevent thefts despite gains in reducing violent deaths.
A reduction in property crimes is possible through a more strategic approach to policing, focused on crime hotspot analysis and seasonal crime patterns. This requires greater coordination between security forces, ensuring that resources are allocated effectively to areas and periods with the highest crime incidence.