Only 36% of homicides committed in 2023 were solved by the end of 2024, meaning that just over one in three cases had at least one identified suspect reported to the courts. The data, compiled by the Sou da Paz Institute, covers 16 states and the Federal District. Of 24,100 recorded homicides, prosecutors filed charges in 8,800 cases. The institute noted that Brazil’s homicide investigation rate has remained stagnant for nearly a decade, with the national clearance rate fluctuating between 32% and 39% since 2015. The only exception occurred in 2018, when the rate briefly rose to 44%.
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Among the states analyzed, the Federal District achieved the highest homicide clearance rate at 96%, while Bahia ranked last with only 13% of cases resolved. São Paulo, Brazil’s most populous state, experienced a notable decline: in Governor Tarcísio de Freitas’s (Republicans) first year in office, its clearance rate fell from 40% in 2022 to 31% in 2023—a nine-point drop that reversed previous progress in criminal investigations.
No Data Submitted
Ten states were excluded from the survey because their data was incomplete, missing homicide dates, or had over 20% of cases without sufficient information. These states include Alagoas, Amapá, Goiás, Maranhão, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Pará, Rio Grande do Norte, Rio Grande do Sul, and Tocantins. Researchers emphasized that even among states that provided data, inconsistencies and reporting gaps remain major obstacles to transparency and accountability.
Age
Only five states—Acre, Pernambuco, Piauí, Roraima, and São Paulo—submitted enough data to analyze victims’ age distribution. The results show that young adults remain the most affected demographic: 22% of victims were between 18 and 24 years old, followed by 16% between 25 and 29. However, among solved cases, there was a greater concentration of victims aged 35 and older, suggesting that investigations involving younger victims tend to face more challenges.
Gender
Using data from eight states—Acre, Amazonas, Ceará, Pernambuco, Piauí, Roraima, Santa Catarina, and São Paulo—the study found that women accounted for 16% of homicide victims in solved cases, while men accounted for 84%. Furthermore, cases involving female victims tend to be solved more frequently, which researchers attribute to greater public attention and specialized police units focused on gender-based violence.
Few Arrests
The Sou da Paz Institute also linked low clearance rates to the small proportion of homicide suspects actually arrested. According to the National Secretariat of Penal Policies (Senappen), only 13% of Brazil’s 670,000 prisoners are serving time for homicide. By contrast, property crimes such as robbery, theft, and fraud represent 40% of inmates, while drug trafficking accounts for 31%. The imbalance highlights both the structural weaknesses of homicide investigations and the criminal justice system’s prioritization of other types of offenses.
Analysis:
The persistently low clearance rate for homicides in Brazil exposes deep structural deficiencies in the country’s investigative and judicial systems. With only 36% of cases solved in 2023, the data suggests not only a lack of investigative capacity but also uneven institutional performance among states. The sharp contrasts—from the Federal District’s 96% resolution rate to Bahia’s 13%—indicate that the problem is less about isolated failures and more about systemic disparities in resources, training, and coordination between police and prosecutorial bodies.
The findings also reveal troubling demographic and procedural patterns. Cases involving young male victims—who represent the majority of homicide targets in Brazil—tend to face greater investigative challenges, likely due to the context in which these crimes occur: areas marked by high violence, social vulnerability, and limited police presence. Meanwhile, the higher resolution of cases involving female victims points to the effectiveness of specialized investigative units and the influence of public pressure on cases of gender-based violence.
Sources: A Folha de SP.
