Brazil is entering a decisive phase ahead of the upcoming elections, marked by a highly competitive presidential race, increasing institutional friction, and strategic political maneuvering across different levels of government. Recent polling indicates a tight dispute between President Lula and his main opponents, reinforcing the uncertainty surrounding the electoral outcome. At the same time, Lula’s international positioning—particularly in relation to the United States and global conflicts—has become part of his broader political strategy, with direct implications for his domestic support. Within the country, there are also tensions involving the Supreme Federal Court reveal internal divisions and debates over the limits, role, and accountability of the judiciary. These disputes intersect with sensitive political issues, such as the legal uncertainty surrounding the succession process in Rio de Janeiro after the removal of its governor. In parallel, conflicts within the Legislative Assembly of Rio and legal challenges to its leadership further illustrate a fragmented political environment. Altogether, these developments reflect a scenario in which electoral dynamics, institutional stability, and legal disputes are closely interconnected, shaping Brazil’s political landscape in the months leading up to the vote.
This Content Is Only For Subscribers
To unlock this content, subscribe to INTERLIRA Reports.
Presidential Elections
President Lula (PT) leads in a first-round voting scenario according to a new BTG/Nexus poll released on Monday (27) but remains in a statistically tied position with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in a potential second-round runoff. The survey shows Lula with 41% of voting intentions, compared to 36% for Bolsonaro. Other potential candidates, such as former governors Romeu Zema (Novo) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), register 4% and 3%, respectively. In a second-round scenario, Lula records 46% against 45% for Bolsonaro, maintaining the same level observed in March, while Bolsonaro’s numbers fluctuate within the margin of error. The poll was conducted by telephone between April 24 and 26, with 2,028 respondents aged 16 or older. The margin of error is two percentage points, within a 95% confidence interval.
Counterpoint to Trump
President Lula (PT) used his recent trip to Europe, which concluded on Tuesday (21), to publicly position himself in contrast to U.S. President Donald Trump. His statements reinforced an ongoing political divergence that, according to analysts, has had domestic political repercussions since 2025, including shifts in public opinion and electoral dynamics. During speeches, Lula criticized U.S. actions related to the war in Iran, stating that no country’s leader has the right to intervene militarily in another nation. He also defended the adoption of reciprocal measures in response to the expulsion of a Brazilian federal police officer from the United States. The president’s stance echoes previous moments in his administration when he invoked national sovereignty, particularly in response to trade tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Brazilian exports. Those tariffs, reportedly encouraged by former congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, were seen as part of broader political pressure linked to legal proceedings involving his father.
End of the 6×1 Shift
The Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) of the Chamber of Deputies approved on Wednesday (22) a favorable opinion on the admissibility of the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) aimed at ending the 6×1 work schedule. This approval represents the first step for the proposal to move forward in Congress. The text will now be analyzed by a special committee responsible for debating the substance of the measure and defining key aspects, such as the new weekly working hour limit, the existence of a transition period, and possible tax compensation for affected sectors. Only after this stage will the proposal proceed to a vote in the plenary. The version approved by the CCJ does not address the merits, focusing solely on its constitutionality. Two PECs are being processed jointly, authored by deputies Reginaldo Lopes (PT-MG) and Erika Hilton (PSOL-SP), both proposing a reduction in the standard workweek from 44 to 36 hours. The federal government considers the current model outdated and has advocated for a 40-hour weekly limit, without mandating a fixed shift structure, leaving negotiations to employers and workers. The proposal is also seen as part of a broader strategy to improve the popularity of President Lula (PT) in an election year.
Internal Disputes at the STF
Amid an ongoing image crisis at the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and growing internal disagreements among its members, Justice Flávio Dino proposed on Monday (20) a new reform of the Judiciary. The initiative opens another front of tension with the group aligned with the Court’s president, Edson Fachin, particularly regarding an ethical and institutional agenda for the magistracy. Judicial self-restraint has been one of the main principles defended by Fachin during his tenure, including in public speeches earlier this year. Dino’s proposal includes the creation of stricter criminal offenses for crimes committed by judges and prosecutors, as well as broader regulation of “rights, duties, remuneration, impediments, ethics, and discipline” within legal careers. These proposals are part of a broader set of 15 measures that, according to Dino, point to the need for a comprehensive reform capable of addressing structural problems affecting businesses, citizens, and the public administration.
Election in Rio de Janeiro
The anticipated publication of the Superior Electoral Court’s (TSE) ruling on the conviction of former governor Cláudio Castro (PL) is expected to intensify institutional tensions between segments of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) and the Electoral Justice system. Legal uncertainties persist regarding key issues, including the effects of Castro’s resignation shortly before the ruling and the annulment of his mandate. The STF is currently deliberating whether the election for the interim governorship in Rio de Janeiro should be conducted by direct popular vote or indirectly through the state legislature (Alerj). According to existing legal interpretations, a direct election is required if the vacancy results from a TSE conviction, whereas an indirect vote applies if the vacancy stems solely from resignation without successors. The judgment was temporarily suspended following a request for review by Justice Flávio Dino. So far, four justices have voted in favor of an indirect election (Luiz Fux, Cármen Lúcia, André Mendonça, and Nunes Marques), while Cristiano Zanin supports a direct vote. Justices Dino, Gilmar Mendes, and Alexandre de Moraes have indicated a preference for a popular election, making the votes of Dias Toffoli and Court President Edson Fachin potentially decisive in the outcome.
Alerj
The Democratic Labour Party (PDT) filed a lawsuit with the Supreme Federal Court (STF) on Monday (20) seeking to annul the election that resulted in Deputy Douglas Ruas (PL) becoming president of the Legislative Assembly of Rio de Janeiro (Alerj). Through an Argument of Non-Compliance with a Fundamental Precept (ADPF), the party—represented by state deputies Martha Rocha and Vitor Júnior—also requested that a new election be held, this time by secret ballot. Prior to the vote, the PDT had attempted to suspend the open voting process in state courts, but the request was denied, allowing the election to proceed and conclude with a wide victory for Ruas. The party argues that open nominal voting violates constitutional principles such as republicanism, separation of powers, morality, and federal symmetry, and claims that changes to Alerj’s internal rules suffer from formal defects. The legal challenge reinforces an already tense political environment surrounding the assembly’s leadership, as the election itself had been marked by a boycott from left-wing parties, with 25 deputies abstaining and leaving the plenary partially empty.
Analysis:
Brazil is in a highly volatile pre-election period in which electoral competition, institutional dynamics, and political strategy are increasingly intertwined. The narrow margins observed in recent polling between Lula (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) point to a fragmented electorate and a race that remains open to shifts in momentum. In this context, Lula’s international positioning—particularly in relation to Donald Trump and global conflicts—serves not only as foreign policy signaling but also as a tool for domestic political differentiation, reinforcing narratives around sovereignty and global alignment that have historically shaped political identities in Brazil.
At the institutional level, tensions within the Supreme Federal Court reveal deeper debates about the role and limits of judicial power, with proposals from figures such as Flávio Dino pointing to reforms that go beyond technical adjustments and address accountability and ethics. At the same time, the situation in Rio de Janeiro illustrates how legal uncertainty can directly shape political outcomes, as disputes over succession following the removal of Cláudio Castro and challenges within the Legislative Assembly reflect a fragmented and contested institutional environment at the state level.
Sources: A Folha de SP [1], [2], [3], [4]; O Globo [1], [2], [3], [4], [5]; G1.
