Recent studies and analyses on the public security scenario in Brazil point to a close link between party networks and organized crime, the debate around the adoption of international repressive models, and the need for a national pact based on data. Surveys indicate that candidates in territories controlled by militias in Rio de Janeiro accumulate a significant concentration of votes, and 78% of politicians linked to criminal groups between 2016 and 2024 affiliated with right-wing and center-right parties, in which the bullet bench is housed. At the same time, events in the industrial sector debated the application of the “Bukele Model” in the country, a proposal criticized for practical unfeasibility and for ignoring the national expansion of factions such as the First Capital Command (PCC) and the Red Command (CV) in Brazilian prisons. On the other hand, security experts defend the construction of a pact structured by the Union, which integrates police intelligence, reform of the prison system and municipal goals to reduce robberies.
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Infiltration of Organized Crime in Electoral Politics
Academic studies indicate that the relationship between politicians and criminal groups aims to convert territorial control into political power and institutional protection. In communities in Rio de Janeiro dominated by militias, the concentration of votes skyrockets: a civil police officer involved in extortion obtained 13.36% of the votes for state deputy in his territory, compared to the municipal average of 0.26%. Mapping reveals that 78% of the politicians identified by the authorities as linked to militias or factions between 2016 and 2024 belonged to right-wing and center-right parties (such as PP, Republicanos, União Brasil, PSD, and PL), which also house members of the bullet bench. Candidates with votes on the margin resort to alliances with these organizations to gain privileged access to the electorate and enter community clientelist chains where unauthorized opponents are prevented from acting.
The “Bukele Model” Debate in the Business Sector
The presentation of El Salvador’s public security model during a seminar at the Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo (Fiesp) generated controversy about the adoption of punitive measures in Brazil. The event brought together Salvadoran Minister Gustavo Villatoro and Brazilian political leaders who proposed measures such as the exclusion of illegality for police officers and changes in criminal legislation. Critics warn that the “Bukele Model” is based on mass arrests without a judicial warrant, collective trials and constitutional exception, being inapplicable and illegal in the Brazilian reality. Factions such as the PCC and the Red Command are already consolidated in most of the country’s prisons and spread territorially, making the idea of simplified confinement unfeasible, especially in a scenario where 43% of vacancies in maximum security federal prisons remain idle due to lack of investigations focused on intelligence and assets.
Proposal for a Data-Based National Pact
Despite the statistical drop in the rates of violent deaths and theft of vehicles and cell phones in the country, the population’s perception of insecurity remains high, requiring coordinated strategies. Experts from the Crossfire Institute point out that the national factions were born in the penitentiary system and expanded throughout the Northeast due to the strategic position of ports for international drug trafficking. To face the problem in a sustainable way, a national pact coordinated by the federal government is defended structured in five central axes: creation of permanent integrated investigation units, transformation of the prison system, improvement of the investigative capacity of the police to solve homicides (whose current rate of elucidation is only 40%), fight against corruption with the integration of financial controls and municipal funding linked to goals to reduce street crime.
Analysis:
The articulation between the data and the recent debates reveals a public security tensioned between the veiled advance of organized crime in the political system and the electoral appeal to purely repressive solutions. The infiltration of militias and factions into party structures demonstrates that crime does not act only clandestinely, but uses the electoral process to guarantee protection and perpetuate its territorial domination. On the other hand, the promotion of models of exception and mass incarceration serves political marketing, but disregards that unqualified imprisonment strengthens the command of factions already installed in prisons. Overcoming this scenario requires moving away from populist discourses in favor of an integrated national pact, which prioritizes the financial suffocation of armed groups, police intelligence, and the structural transformation of the penitentiary system.
