G20 SUMMIT IN BRAZIL

The G20 and the Summit in Brazil

On 1 December 2023, Brazil took over the presidency of G20, starting its one-year period in the leadership of the group that brings together the 19 largest economies in the world, the European Union (EU) and the African Union (AU), a group that is responsible for around 85% of world GDP, 75% of international trade and 66% of the world’s population. The main events will be held in Rio de Janeiro city. However, G20 meetings will be decentralized, taking place in 13 different Brazilian cities in all the country’s regions. Therefore, under different social and public security contexts.

On the calendar there are more than 120 meetings and events announced during the Brazilian mandate, which culminates in the summit of heads of State and Government, to be held from 18 to 19 November 2024, in Rio de Janeiro. The city will also be the host of a new initiative by the Brazilian government, the G20 Social, where non-governmental stakeholders from member countries will meet to discuss how to increase civil society’s participation in G20 activities and decision-making processes.

Among 93 technical meetings, 26 conference calls, 10 vice-minister meetings, and 23 ministerial meetings, some of the most relevant events, besides the ones in Rio, will be held in Brasília and São Paulo. From 21 to 22 February, the country’s biggest city will be home to the ministerial meeting of the Finance Track, under the coordination of Finance Minister Fernando Haddad. From 11 to 15 December, the country’s capital will have meetings of the world’s largest economies, during which a highlight will happen on the 13^th, for an unprecedented encounter of the Sherpa and Finance Tracks, in a joint meeting that will bring together the political and financial agendas since the beginning of the G20’s activities.

There will be parallel events, the B20 is one of the most prominent among them. Established in 2010, it is a G20 Engagement Group and has a structure of task forces and action councils, which are entrusted with key topics that drive the priorities of each B20 edition. The task forces and councils bring together businesses’ representatives from the G20 countries and from selected invited countries and international organizations. The B20’s main mission is to convey its final recommendations to the G20 Presidency. Just like this engagement group, 12 other events will take place, in addition to dozens of smaller meetings, aggregating value but also complexity to the period, especially in terms of security.

Usual Risks of a Global Summit

The G20 and other global summits traditionally attract the attention of several different political groups, organizations, and social movements. The combination of the presence of the most important political leaders in the world and representatives of global organizations debating fundamental topics connected to the future of society becomes fertile ground for security risks. Such threats can range from peaceful demonstrations to strikes, riots, and terrorist attacks.

Protests and riots are the most common type of incident that can erupt from this kind of meeting that will take place in Brazil in 2024. The history of G20 summits and comparable events has plenty of them.

• For instance, in December 1999 – G20’s foundation year –, tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets of Seattle, United States (US), during a World Trade Organization (WTO) meeting. The riots caused millions of dollars in damage and led to the arrest of 600 people. It was on this occasion that small anarchist groups organized as “Black Blocks” acquired their notoriety.
• Another highlight was in 2001, amid a G8 summit, in Genoa, Italy. In a series of protests, a young Italian was shot and killed by a policeman, more than 500 people were injured, and a lot of damage was done to public and private property. The “Black Blocks” took part in these acts and 45 would have been arrested.
• In 2009, at the second G20 Summit, 4,000 people demonstrated in central London, United Kingdom (UK). When the acts turned violent, a group of protesters started to vandalize a bank. During the altercations with police, a passer-by was thrown to the ground by a policeman, dying later of internal bleeding.
• In 2010, the streets of Toronto were filled with around 10,000 protesters. 20,000 police were sent to repress the violent acts perpetrated by “black blocs”, which would have caused US$ 561,000 in damages. The largest mass arrest in Canadian history was recorded, with more than 1,000 people being detained.
• In 2017, during the 12^th G20 Summit in Hamburg (Germany), violent acts were reported for three nights. Buildings were damaged, stores were looted, and vehicles were torched. “Black Blocs” and other activists from far-left groups clashed with riot police. Around 200 officers were injured. The total damage is estimated to be around €12 million. More than 400 people were arrested.

The major reasons that drive people to protest on these occasions are environmental policies, financial crises, armed conflicts, trade deals, and labor laws. Furthermore, discussions held behind doors, without the presence of journalists, also feed visions of an economic elite governing without any concern for the people, especially the poorest, which stimulates anti-capitalist sentiment.

In Brazil it is not different, the specific local topics revolve around the same reasons. The causes that have great potential to motivate protests are the demarcation of indigenous lands, invasions and the illegal exploration of environmental reserves, fires in the Amazon, agrarian reform, housing problems in urban areas, hunger, poverty, exploitation of fossil fuels, reversal of “recent” labor reforms, etc.

The Landless Workers’ Movement (MST), the Homeless Worker’s Movement (MTST), labor unions, leftist parties, indigenous associations, and environmentalists are the groups that could most likely promote protests.

• Terrorism

Since the 11 September 2001 attacks, Islamic terrorism has been a constant concern in big events with the presence of global leaders. Therefore, hosting the G20 becomes a great security challenge, even in a nation that does not have records of attacks, which is the case of Brazil.

Historically, Brazil has not been the target of Islamic terrorist organizations. However, for a series of reasons, the country has been used as a recruiting area for such groups, and for carrying out money laundry schemes.

During the 2016 Olympic games the country had probably its closest experience ever to a terror attack. With the games about to begin, by using chat applications, local cells that had contact with the Islamic State (IS), started to plan an attack. The security forces managed to discover the plot, detained 11 suspects in 10 different states, and prevented any incident. The operation resulted in the first condemnations in the country under the Anti-Terrorism Law, which had been approved that same year.

Occasionally, cases of recruiters and new recruits of terrorist groups appear in Brazil, but normally, not more than that. Nonetheless, in 2023, many were recorded. On 11 June, the Federal Police (PF) arrested a Brazilian as he was about to leave the country to join the Islamic State (IS). On 10 August, the PF carried out an operation to arrest individuals who would be recruiting teenagers for the IS in São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Rio de Janeiro. On 8 November, the Brazilian-born Syrian Mohamad Khir Abdulmajid was arrested for trying to recruit at least five Brazilians to create a Hezbollah cell in the country. At least two others were arrested in connection with the same case. Intelligence work also found that Abdulmajid had carried out reconnaissance tasks in locations for possible attacks against the Jewish community in Brazil.

Moreover, in 2023, until 1 December, 19 foreigners were prohibited from entering the country at São Paulo International Airport for alleged links to terrorism. The cases were recorded near the beginning of the G20’s works and a bit after the escalation in the conflict between Hamas and Israel in the Gaza Strip, after the 7 October event. The escalation in hostilities likely fueled attack plans.

Security Context of the Main Hosting Regions/Cities

Events on the scale of the G20, with thousands of meetings taking place throughout the year in various parts of the country, will certainly be susceptible to risks beyond the “usual” of large events. The event itself and its participants will “deal” with Brazil’s many public security problems, which are mostly, but not only, connected to the great local threat, organized crime.

In comparison to most G20 members, Brazil has a very violent society. Even though the last few years have had improvements, total numbers and rates are still quite above the global average. Numbers vary between states and regions, but in general, they remain high.

A study from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the Global Study on Homicide 2023, revealed that in 2021 the global homicide rate was 5.8 for every 100,000 inhabitants. Meanwhile, Brazil accumulated a total of 21.26. The result places it in the third position among the G20 members, behind only Mexico, with 26.11, and South Africa, with 33.96. On the other hand, in terms of absolute numbers, it is not only on the top of the G20 ranking but also on the global list, with 45,562 homicides.

Even though the UN’s work does not provide data about the context of homicides perpetrated in Brazil, some evidence indicates that most of them are the result of the presence of organized crime, drug trafficking gangs, militias, etc. For instance, it was during a national gang war, from 2016 to 2017, that the country recorded its highest homicide rates. In 2016, 51,093 people were killed, and the rate was 25 for every 100,000 inhabitants; the following year, it accumulated 55,950 homicides, and a rate of 27.1, according to data provided by the Federal Government. Cities where specific researches were completed on the topic also show great participation of criminal groups. In Porto Alegre, capital of Rio Grande do Sul, 8 out of every 10 homicides recorded, in the first half of 2023, were the result of organized crime, according to data from the Homicide Department. Finally, it fits in with the average calculated by the UN for the Americas, where around 50% of the homicides are gang-related.

Another fact that adds risk to Brazil’s context is the wide usage of firearms in the perpetration of homicides and the locations where they take place. Data from the Brazilian Public Security Forum from 2022 shows that 75.4% of homicides in the country were committed with firearms and 50.6% of them took place on the streets, thus in public spaces. These circumstances increase the potential risk for people circulating, such as members of commissions, diplomats, and everyone involved with the meetings and summits scheduled.

Still, there is also the risk posed by property crimes, which particularly plague urban centers all over the country. The most complete and updated global data available in the UNODC database, from 2017, shows Brazil in the third position when it comes to this violent property crime. The country had 797.3 robberies per 100,000 inhabitants, behind Costa Rica (1,587) and Argentina (922.5). However, a more updated but less complete list, from 2018, puts the biggest South American nation in second, with 695.7, behind Uruguay (866.7).

Brazil is not only among some of the worst nations in terms of organized crime and homicides, but also one of the nations the most targeted by cybercriminals and scammers, which operate both “on the streets” and online. Scams and digital threats are growing in Brazil, and they will surely be a risk for those attending G20, especially when using the internet and making payments. In 2022, 200,322 electronic frauds were recorded, an increase of 65.2% when compared to 2021, according to the 2023 Brazilian Public Security Yearbook. But scams outside the online world also multiplied. In 2022, the total of frauds reported, including those in the virtual environment, was 1,819,409, which represents a 247% annual increase.

The numbers discussed above are the national averages or totals and do not reveal the specific situation of some especially dangerous cities where multiple G20 meetings will occur. The set of information mentioned below is also the result of the 2023 Brazilian Public Security Yearbook. The IVD used by the FBSP is a more complete way to describe the violence under Brazilian standards. It represents the sum of intentional homicides (regular homicides, femicides, and policemen killed), deaths by police forces, robbery followed by murder, and intentional bodily injury followed by death.

• The North

In the North region, events will take place in the capital of Pará, Belém, and of Amazonas, Manaus. Among Brazil’s five regions, the North had the second worst rate of violent intentional deaths (IVD) in 2022, 36.5 IVDs per 100,000 inhabitants, despite a 2.7% fall. The region has the third-highest total number of IVDs, 6,333. Manaus is the city that had the highest number of homicides in the region (1,102) and the third among the national capitals. It also had the third highest rate, 53.4. Belém also has a high rate, of 25.9. Even though the region is going through a crisis caused by drug traffickers invading indigenous lands and reserves, the cities also suffer from many property crimes and crimes against life.

• The Northeast

In the Northeast region, events will take place in São Luis, Maranhão; Teresina, Piauí; Fortaleza, Ceará; Maceió, Alagoas; Salvador, Bahia. Among Brazil’s five regions, the Northeast had the worst rate of violent intentional deaths (IVD) in 2022, with 36.8 IVDs per 100,000 inhabitants. It also had the highest total number of IVDs, 20,122. Moreover, the region had 26 cities among the 50 most violent, 11 in a single state, Bahia, which was the most violent in 2022, with 6,659 IVDs or a rate of 47.1. Salvador concentrated 1,596 of such violent deaths, and a rate of 66, the second worst result for a capital. Among the other cities that will have meetings of the G20, quite negative rates are seen in Maceió (40.5), and Teresina (41.3).

• The Central-West

In the Central-West region, events will take place in the country’s capital, Brasília. Among Brazil’s five regions, the Central-West had the third rate of violent intentional deaths (IVD) in 2022. The region had 22.6 IVDs per 100,000 inhabitants and the smallest total number of violent deaths. However, the capital is very controlled and well-policed, with a rate of 11.3, the third smallest. Even though it is still above the UN standard for a country not at war (around 10), it is low for the country’s average (24).

• The Southeast

In the Southeast region, events will take place in São Paulo, São Paulo; Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais; and Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro. Among Brazil’s five regions, the Southeast is the most complex, with large and hyper-populous urban centers permeated by various large criminal organizations that directly control many poor neighborhoods and slums inside the cities. In 2022, it had the smallest rate of violent intentional deaths (IVD), with 14.1 IVDs per 100,000 inhabitants. But despite the positive result, the region still accumulated the second-highest total number of IVDs, 11,930. Moreover, the region had six cities among the 50 most violent in the country, all of them in the state of Rio de Janeiro, and four in the metropolitan region. Among the three cities that will host meetings, Rio is the most violent and is currently under federal intervention to improve its public security. São Paulo and Belo Horizonte are plagued by criminal organizations as well, but in such states, the gangs operate in significantly less violent ways, when compared to Rio. Furthermore, in SP and BH, the criminal factions have fewer rivals, leading to more stable criminal scenarios.

• The South

In the South region, events will take place in Foz do Iguaçú, Paraná; Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul. Among Brazil’s five regions, the South came in 4th place in terms of violent intentional deaths (IVD) in 2022. The region had a total of 5,438 violent deaths, and 18.2 IVDs per 100,000 inhabitants. Porto Alegre (RS) was the Southern capital with the worst results, with 30 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, and the highest increase (24.8%) in IVDs. Foz do Iguaçú is a city on the border with Paraguay, extremely influenced by organized crime, which carries out drug trafficking operations there and other illegal activities, like contraband, weapons smuggling, and more. It is also in the area where it is estimated that Hezbollah members operate, according to information disclosed by the Federal Police and United States intelligence reports and risk consultant Venessa Neumann, in Lucros de Sangue (NEUMANN, Vanessa. Lucros de Sangue: Como o Consumidor Financia o Terrorismo. São Paulo, SP. Matrix, 2018).

Forecast

Brazil presents a multitude of threats that can manifest themselves during the G20, affecting people and meetings alike. However, while the risks normally attracted by multinational summits – protests, strikes, riots, terrorist attacks – are not discarded and have a good chance to occur, Brazil’s biggest risks are those that can hamper the event indirectly – gang wars, shootouts, robberies, thefts, etc. –, by affecting participants individually due to the country’s public security context.

Looking back at the events that have already taken place in countries from the Global South, it is noticeable that fewer protests and less violent ones have taken place in these Summits. This fact might not be a coincidence and could be connected to how law enforcement represses demonstrations. On the other hand, the country is filled with social issues – poverty, high demand for homes, and rural reform – and it is at the center of the green movement due to the importance of the Amazon Forest. Hence, it is reasonable to expect that the social movements connected to the most appealing causes will voice their concerns on the streets.

These social movements include preservationist groups, the MST, the MTST, labor unions, and more. Still, two factors can collaborate to reduce the impact of demonstrations promoted by these organizations. Firstly, the novelty proposed by President Lula, the G20 Social, can give a formal way for social movements to have their agenda heard, reducing the impetus for more actions on the streets. Secondly, many of these groups have a good relationship with Lula and, thus, will probably refrain from promoting actions that could damage the image of the central government.

Normally, the higher the summit’s profile, the more demonstrations it attracts. So, protests that indeed take place will probably occur near the final summit, in November, when the summit with the heads of state will take place.

Brazil was never a great target for the Islamic terrorism that has hit the US and Europe many times. Nevertheless, some groups were already detected in national territory. In addition, during international events, like the Olympic Games, the police discovered plans of attacks to hit foreign targets. After the intensification of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East, cases of anti-Semitism and Islamophobia grew around the world. This could stimulate terror groups to seek Jewish and foreign targets locally, and the G20 creates many opportunities for that goal.

The biggest risk for the attendees of this Summit is still the day-to-day criminality. Simple tasks, like going to the event location expose people to various threats, especially in complex urban environments like that of Rio: accessing a gang-controlled favela, being surprised by a shooting in the middle of the street, or by a robber on a motorcycle.

Facing this scenario, proper preparation for teams and individuals coming to any meeting includes risk assessments of routes that will be taken and of locations used to stay when in Brazil. In addition, personalized and detailed risk awareness sessions can help visitors understand what awaits them, how to behave to reduce exposure, and how to react to mitigate consequences. More advanced services for specific scenarios can include tracking devices equipped with panic buttons, armored vehicles, and more.