SUMMARY
On 16 June, the Brazilian Public Security Forum (FBSP) published one of its most important surveys with detailed data about the security scenario in the country according to data from 2022, the “Violence Atlas 2024 – A Portrait of Brazilian Cities”. The work delves into the country’s diverse and complex public security panorama and attempts to indicate trends in violence, “gaps” in the public security system, and measures to improve it.
Amongst the findings mentioned, the report highlights that cities with over 500,000 inhabitants have the highest homicide rates in the country but maintain significant disparities between themselves, with cities presenting rates of 4.9 homicides recorded for every 100 thousand inhabitants, like Uberlândia, in Minas Gerais, (with 713,224 inhabitants), and others with 66.4 homicides recorded for every 100 thousand inhabitants, like Salvador, in Bahia (with 2,417,678 inhabitants). The report also emphasizes that smaller cities are not spared by this violence, however, due to their smaller size, their homicide rate is not representative since it can suffer from strong variations from year to year. Another important finding is that violence in Brazil remains concentrated, regardless of the scale discussed.
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Main Findings
The previous map showcases the homicide estimation per municipality in Brazil for every 100 thousand inhabitants ranging from rates above equal or above 47/100,000 or equal or inferior to 19.9/100,000. As it is highligted in this map, when it comes to exposure to lethal violence in Brazil, not every region – as well as cities and states – are impacted equally, as represented in the following graph.
Indeed, the regions harboring the highest homicides rates are found mainly in the North and the Northeast and also, however to a lesser extent, in the Central-West. Furthermore, the highest homicides rates are principally concentrated in 2.9% of Brazilian municipalities, and amongst most populous cities in Brazil, the ones that rank the highest in terms of homicide rates are located in the North and Northeast of Brazil. Those cities even harbor a higher homicide rate than their regional average.
The cities with the highest rate are Salvador, Manaus, Fortaleza and Recife, with respectively 66.4, 55.7, 45.3 and 44.7 homicides recorded for every 100 thousand inhabitants, while the national average is 24.5 homicides recorded for every 100 thousand inhabitants.
Another study cited by the report, and dated May 2016, found that half of the homicides in the municipalities considered most violent occurred in at most 10% of the neighborhoods. The spatial concentration of homicides in cities is paralleled by similar patterns in other crimes, such as robberies and thefts. For instance, in Vitória, Espírito Santo (SE), a striking 50% of residential burglaries are confined to just 2.1% of the neighborhoods in the Metropolitan Region of Greater Vitória. Similarly, 50% of vehicle thefts occur in only 0.3% of these neighborhoods.
The Brazilian Public Security Forum (FBSP) study emphasizes the need for enhanced city management in public security. Indeed, they base themselves on results that showed that in cases where a city guard (Guarda Municipal) was adopted, there was a significant drop in the number of homicides, on average, around 15%.
Those results show that changes in policing strategies to a more “local” approach” can help the Brazilian states reduce criminality. It also mentions that Public Security Observatories could help this path by serving as a means to collect information that would guide the strategy.
The Atlas also showcased how homicides are more and more caused by the armed conflicts between the criminal organizations themselves, or to a lesser extent, due to clashes between criminal organizations with the police.
The study also underscored the need to rethink the penitentiary system, since it participates in the birth of most criminal organizations that plague the country.
The North Region
The FBSP study shows that the North of Brazil has the second highest homicide rate (35.8 per 100,000 inhab.), which is significantly higher than the national average. Its most populous city, Manaus has the second highest homicide rate amongst Brazil’s biggest regional capitals (55.7 per 100,000 inhab.).
The Northeast Region
The Northeast of Brazil has traditionally been the most violent region. In Bahia for example, almost all the cities harbor a homicide rate bordering 47 per 100,000 inhabitants. In the state of Ceara, among its 185 cities, 4 of its biggest cities have homicide rates significantly larger than the national average for big cities: Maracanaú (58.0 per 100,000 inhab.), Caucaia (56.2 per 100,000 inhab.), a capital (45.3 per 100,000 inhab.) e Maranguape (43.8 per 100,000 inhab.).
The Southeast Region
The Southeast (Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, São Paulo) has the lowest homicide rate of Brazil. The most populous state, São Paulo, has the lowest crime rate of the region, (12 per 100,000 inhab.) and is far below the national average.
The South Region
The South of Brazil is second least violent than all the other regions, since its regional average is the second lowest of Brazil (18.1 per 100,000 inhab.), while also presenting disparities. However, even the highest average (Paraná), is still lower than the national average, as exemplified below.
The Central-West Region
Due to the proximity to Paraguay and Bolivia, the state of Mato Grosso presents a strategic opportunity to traffic drugs into Brazil. This in turn is reflected in the region’s homicide rate, (23.4 per 100,000 inhab.), which is declining since 2016 (-14%).
Disparities and Concentration
The “Violence Atlas – A Portrait of Brazilian Cities,” by the FBSP, reveals significant disparities in Brazil’s homicide rates across regions and city sizes in 2022. Large cities, especially in the North and Northeast, suffer the most with a very high homicide rate compared to the national average, and even the average in Latin America. Crime is also highly localized, with a small percentage of neighborhoods accounting for most crimes. The report underscores the need for better municipal public security management and strategic policing to curb violence.
