Brazil may have recorded 7,083 more homicides in 2024 than official statistics indicate, according to the 2026 Violence Atlas produced by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) and the Brazilian Forum on Public Security (FBSP), released on Tuesday (26/05). Researchers from Ipea estimate that part of these deaths fall within the category of hidden homicides and apply a probabilistic methodology to calculate the likely number of cases. The combination of officially registered homicides and estimated hidden homicides forms what the Atlas defines as the estimated homicide total.
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Hidden Homicides
Hidden homicides refer to violent deaths in which authorities were unable to determine the underlying cause, such as whether the case resulted from an accident, suicide, or homicide. These deaths are technically classified as Violent Deaths of Undetermined Cause (MVCI). According to researchers, deficiencies in investigations and forensic identification contribute to the underreporting of intentional killings within official homicide statistics.
Total Homicides
Based on this methodology, the total number of homicides in Brazil in 2024 would rise from 42,590, according to official records, to 49,673 estimated cases. The national homicide rate would also increase from 20.1 to 23.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. In practice, this means that, when hidden homicides are included, the reduction in violence indicated by the 2026 Atlas would disappear, despite official data showing the country’s lowest homicide rate in the last 11 years.
Less Violent States
According to official statistics, São Paulo recorded the lowest homicide rate in the country in 2024, with 6.6 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. It was followed by Santa Catarina, the Federal District, Minas Gerais, and Rio Grande do Sul. When hidden homicides are included in the calculations, São Paulo falls from first to third place among the states with the lowest homicide rates. Santa Catarina moves to the top of the ranking, with an estimated rate of 8.8 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, followed by the Federal District, with 10.9.
Ranking with Hidden Homicides:
- Santa Catarina: 8.8
- Federal District: 10.9
- São Paulo: 12.8
- Rio Grande do Sul: 15.9
- Minas Gerais: 18.5
Most Violent States
Among the states with the highest homicide rates, Amapá remains in first place even after hidden homicides are added to the estimates. The state’s official rate was 45.7 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, rising to 47.1 when the estimated hidden cases are included. The most significant change occurs in Ceará. According to official records, the state had the fifth-highest homicide rate in the country, at 34.3 per 100,000 inhabitants. After including hidden homicides, the estimated rate increases to 43.7, placing Ceará as the second most violent state in Brazil according to the revised ranking.
Ranking with Hidden Homicides:
- Amapá: 47.1
- Ceará: 43.7
- Bahia: 42.6
- Alagoas: 39.8
- Pernambuco: 38.6
Hidden Homicides Nearly Doubled
In 2024, the estimated number of hidden homicides increased from 3,755 to 7,083, representing an 88.6% rise compared to the previous year. The hidden homicide rate also increased from 1.8 to 3.3 per 100,000 inhabitants, an increase of 83.3%. As a result, hidden homicides came to account for 14.3% of the estimated homicide total in 2024, compared to 7.6% in 2023. Over the period from 2014 to 2024, Brazil accumulated approximately 55,200 hidden homicides. During the same timeframe, the estimated total number of homicides in the country reached approximately 638,800 cases.
Analysis:
The findings presented in the 2026 Violence Atlas raise serious concerns about the reliability and completeness of Brazil’s homicide statistics. The sharp increase in estimated hidden homicides suggests that part of the apparent reduction in lethal violence observed in recent years may reflect deficiencies in investigation and classification rather than an actual improvement in public security conditions. Violent deaths characterized as having undetermined causes frequently emerge in contexts where forensic capacity is limited, police investigations are incomplete, or institutional coordination between health and security systems is weak. When these deaths are incorporated into the calculations, the country’s homicide rate changes substantially, indicating that Brazil may still be experiencing levels of lethal violence considerably higher than those reflected in official records. This discrepancy has important implications because public policy planning, allocation of resources, and security strategies depend heavily on accurate statistical information.
