With difficulties consolidating a base in Congress, President Lula (PT) ended the second year of his current presidential term with a record number of vetoes overturned – since 1994 – by deputies and senators during the first half of his administration, a total of 28. Facing the likelihood of new vetoes being overridden, the government is planning a ministerial reform aimed at fostering a more harmonious relationship with Parliament. Since last month, the president has vetoed parts of various legislative projects, triggering negative reactions from sectors within the legislature—movements are already underway to reverse the decisions.
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Main Veto
One of the most contentious cases involves the vetoes of parts of the proposal that relaxes the payment of state debts. Governors have publicly expressed dissatisfaction, asserting that the renegotiation terms are worse than those approved by Parliament. There is mounting pressure to convene a congressional session, likely to take place in March, to address these vetoes.
Last Defeats
In the past two years, President Lula has faced significant defeats, including the overturning of vetoes on initiatives such as the temporal landmark for the demarcation of Indigenous lands, the law tightening criteria for the temporary release of prisoners, and the new regulations for pesticide use. The number of vetoes overturned during the first half of Lula’s current term closely mirrors the first two years of former President Jair Bolsonaro’s term, which saw 24 such defeats in 2019 and 2020. Similar to the current administration, Bolsonaro’s government also faced a turbulent relationship with Congress.
Profile Change
The growing tendency of senators and deputies to overturn presidential vetoes became prominent during Bolsonaro’s administration, which marked the beginning of a shift towards congressional empowerment and greater control over the budget. Like Lula’s administration, Bolsonaro’s government lacked a solid majority in Parliament, leading to setbacks. Previously, it was more common for the legislature to avoid convening sessions to analyze vetoes, reflecting a time when the Executive held more sway over the legislative branch.
New Defeats in Sight
Upcoming decisions by Congress are expected to include the partial reversal of presidential vetoes on the text addressing state debt renegotiation and parts of the Budgetary Guidelines Law (LDO). These include provisions related to adjustments to the party fund and rules limiting the blocking of parliamentary amendments. Regarding state debt, the primary presidential veto in the State Debt Payment Program (Propag) eliminated a provision that allowed states adhering to the program to use funds from the Regional Development Fund (FNDR), created under the Tax Reform, to offset interest on debts owed to the Union.
Government Approval
A GENIAL/Quaest survey released on Monday (27/01) shows that the approval rate for President Lula’s administration dropped by five percentage points, falling from 52% to 47%. For the first time, this figure is below the percentage of those who disapprove of the government. According to the survey, 49% now express disapproval of the president’s performance, two points higher than the approval index. With a margin of error of one percentage point, approval and disapproval rates are technically tied. However, the data indicates a rising trajectory of disapproval, while approval has been declining since December, coinciding with the crisis surrounding Pix.
Analysis:
President Lula’s second year in office has underscored significant challenges in consolidating a stable base in Congress, as demonstrated by the record number of vetoes overturned by deputies and senators. The 28 vetoes reversed so far reflect not only the administration’s strained relationship with Parliament but also a broader trend of congressional empowerment that has intensified since Bolsonaro’s presidency. These dynamics signal a shift in the balance of power, with the legislature increasingly asserting its influence over the executive, particularly in matters related to the budget and policymaking.
Unlike previous administrations that could often bypass veto discussions, today’s Congress has assumed a more assertive role, bolstered by increased control over budget allocations and parliamentary amendments. This shift highlights an evolving political landscape where traditional methods of executive dominance are no longer sufficient, forcing presidents to navigate a more pluralistic and independent legislative environment.
Compounding these challenges is a noticeable decline in Lula’s approval ratings, with recent surveys revealing a reversal in public sentiment. Disapproval has risen steadily, driven in part by controversies such as the Pix crisis and dissatisfaction with the pace of economic improvements. This trend presents a dual challenge for the president: maintaining credibility with a skeptical public while simultaneously managing an increasingly adversarial Congress.