With half of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s term completed, discussions about a ministerial reform have begun to dominate conversations at the Planalto Palace, sparking movements in Congress. People close to Lula confirm that some changes are under consideration to accommodate the interests of allied parties, ensuring their support in votes in the Chamber and Senate, as well as in the 2026 elections, while also improving management in areas deemed problematic. Additionally, the government is advancing plans to modernize state-owned companies amid record deficits and is pushing to approve key legislative priorities before the parliamentary recess, including state debt renegotiation measures and agendas tied to various Parliamentary Groups.
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In 2025
The expectation is that Lula will announce the changes to his team by early next year (2025), allowing him to start the second half of his term with a renewed team and strengthened alliances with centrist parties. A ministerial meeting to assess and align plans is expected to take place in January.
Replacements
The president has already discussed replacements in the government with the Chief of Staff, Rui Costa, and other close allies. However, Lula rarely discloses his plans fully to any single aide. To avoid leaks, he tends to reveal his decisions incrementally to different interlocutors. As a result, no one at the Planalto Palace is willing to risk predicting the new configuration of the Esplanade. Among ministries led by PT members, the Secretariat of Social Communication, headed by Paulo Pimenta, faces the most criticism. Lula has publicly criticized the government’s communication strategy, and for his allies, these remarks signal his intent to replace the aide.
Support for 2026
The proposed ministerial reform aims to tie supporting parties to Lula’s re-election project. The goal is to secure the backing of the centrist parties in the first round of voting in 2026. Among these parties, the PSD, which elected the largest number of mayors in this year’s municipal elections and has been gaining influence in Congress, is highly coveted.
Neutrality
The reform is also expected to address the interests of PP and União Brasil, which are currently aligned with the government but may not support Lula’s reelection bid. Allies argue that maintaining or expanding the positions offered to these parties could secure at least their neutrality in 2026, preventing them from providing television airtime and electoral funds to a PT opponent in the next presidential election.
State-Owned Companies
President Lula will meet with 16 ministers and the Attorney General of the Union, Jorge Messias, to discuss modernizing state-owned companies. Last month, data from the Central Bank’s fiscal statistics report revealed a R$7.2 billion deficit among state-owned companies between January and August this year, the largest since the historical series began in 2002. Federal state-owned companies accounted for R$3.3 billion, while state and municipal ones accounted for R$3.8 billion. Notably, Petrobras, Caixa, and BNDES (National Bank for Economic and Social Development) are excluded from these figures.
Important Votes
With less than a month before the parliamentary recess, leaders of the Senate and Chamber of Deputies are accelerating the analysis of bills demanded by groups whose support they negotiated in succession races for House leadership. Proposals include the PEC das Praias, backed by the opposition, measures targeting the Landless Workers’ Movement (MST) requested by the ruralists’ political group, and public safety-related measures aimed at the political group of weapons. While the Speaker of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP), is building alliances to support Hugo Motta (Republicans) as his successor, Senate Speaker Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD) is working to facilitate Davi Alcolumbre’s (União Brasil) return as head of Congress.
Nod to Governors
The front runners for leadership positions in the Chamber of Deputies and Senate are also appealing to governors. Of particular interest is a bill that allows states to renegotiate their debts, which is expected to feature on the Chamber’s agenda this week. Changes to the text approved by the Senate were negotiated two weeks ago in a meeting between Lira and Rio de Janeiro state Governor Cláudio Castro.
Analysis:
The upcoming ministerial reform in President Lula’s administration reflects the intricacies of Brazil’s coalition-based politics and the challenges unique to his third term. As Lula reaches the halfway point of his mandate, these adjustments signal a strategic effort to solidify his congressional support and pave the way for reelection in 2026. This move highlights the president’s pragmatic approach to maintaining governability amidst a fragmented political landscape, where aligning with centrist parties like PSD, PP, and União Brasil becomes critical for both immediate legislative needs and future electoral strategy.
Finally, the simultaneous focus on congressional leadership succession highlights the administration’s proactive approach to securing legislative stability. The push to elect Hugo Motta in the Chamber and support Davi Alcolumbre’s return to the Senate reveals an effort to install allies in key positions for smoother approval of government priorities. With the ministerial reform expected in early 2025, Lula seeks to begin the second half of his term with a recalibrated team and stronger alliances, reinforcing his position for the critical electoral challenges ahead.
Sources: O Globo [1], [2], [3], [4]; A Folha de SP.
