The recently published 2024 Violence Atlas (2024 Atlas da Violência) revealed that after relative stability in the homicide rate in Brazil, between 2012 and 2015, an increase in lethality rates was observed in 2016 and 2017, followed by a strong reduction until 2019, when the rates were maintained, remaining stable until 2022. Much debate has been held around understanding the evolution of homicides during this period. The argument was always in favor of structural and circumstantial factors that would help explain the phenomenon.
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Faction Expansion
One element that has certainly put upward pressure on homicide rates concerns the expansion of criminal factions, especially since the 2000s, involved in disputes over control of drug sales. From the 2010s onwards, the dispute intensified in the North and Northeast, between the two largest factions in the country – Red Command and First Capital Command – and led to an intense war breaking out in 2016 and 2017. During this period the number of deaths increased.
In Favor of Reduction
In the opposite direction, working to reduce homicides, the country went through the biggest demographic transition in its history, starting in the early 2000s, towards an aging population. The drop in homicides is in the wake of the decrease in the proportion of young people in the population.
Firearms
Another factor that contributed to the drop in homicides was the greater control of firearms from 2003 onwards, with the sanction of the Disarmament Statute (ED).
Public Security Policies
A third element that contributed to the reduction in homicides refers to a set of public security policies in some states and cities.
End of Decrease
This dynamic in favor of reducing homicides lost strength in 2019. In fact, between 2019 and 2022, the variation in the homicide rate in the country was zero, having increased again in the Northeast (6.1%) and in the South (1.2%) and decreased in the other regions, with emphasis on the Central-West (-14.1%), which maintained the rate of decline that had occurred since 2016.
New Weapons Policy
A possible explanation for this stagnation in the process of reducing lethal violence in Brazil from 2020 onwards concerns the relaxation of gun access laws, which may have influenced an increase in homicides. A study by the Brazilian Public Security Forum showed that if there had not been such legislation, the reduction in homicides would have been even greater than what was observed.
Hidden Deaths
Between 2012 and 2022, 131,562 people died violent deaths without the State being able to identify the underlying cause of death, whether resulting from accidents, suicides, or homicides, the so-called Violent Deaths due to Undetermined Causes (MVCI). This phenomenon of indeterminacy in the cause of death increased considerably in 2018 and 2019. Considering that part of these MVCI is, in reality, homicides that were hidden in statistics, analyses on the prevalence of lethal violence are hampered, mainly because such the situation does not occur randomly, but is concentrated in a restricted set of states.
Analysis:
Homicide rates in Brazil between 2012 and 2022 reveal complex dynamics in public security. After stability between 2012 and 2015, rates increased in 2016 and 2017, followed by a reduction until 2019, when they stabilized until 2022. This behavior is attributed to structural and cyclical factors. One of these factors is the prohibition of psychoactive drugs and state repression. Experts say this ban results in thousands of violent deaths and fuels mass incarceration, strengthening prison factions. Establishing reference quantities for drug possession could promote reducing police approaches based on subjective suspicion. It is estimated that between 23% and 35% of defendants prosecuted for drug trafficking had quantities compatible with personal use, and between 18.9% and 30.0% of those arrested for drug crimes could be considered users.
The prohibition policy has been ineffective, and it has generated high economic costs, with the annual incarceration cost exceeding R$2 billion. The international experience of decriminalization and regulation of drug markets, such as in Uruguay, Canada, and the USA, offers valuable lessons. Controlled legalization could generate significant savings and tax revenue, which, if used well, could reduce homicides and overdose deaths.
In summary, the evolution of homicide rates in Brazil is influenced by demographic, legal, and operational factors. The expansion of criminal factions, demographic change, weapons legislation, and public security policies play significant roles.
