A study released on Wednesday (08/07) by the Sou da Paz Institute indicates that Brazilian states with stronger socioeconomic indicators tend to achieve higher homicide clearance rates. The research also identifies increased firearm seizures as an important factor associated with improved investigative outcomes. Nationally, only about four out of every ten homicides are solved. For the purposes of the study, a homicide is considered cleared when an intentional homicide investigation results in formal criminal charges being filed by the Public Prosecutor’s Office by the end of the year following the crime.
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Diagnosis of Homicide Investigations
The report, titled Diagnosis of Homicide Investigations in Brazil, analyzed data from nearly all Brazilian states covering the period between 2020 and 2024. Researchers evaluated four main dimensions: criminal dynamics, socioeconomic and demographic conditions, institutional capacity, and the investigative performance of state Civil Police forces.
Positive Factors
According to the study, the variables most strongly associated with higher homicide clearance rates include household income per capita, the Human Development Index (HDI), urbanization levels, and the population’s average years of schooling. The findings suggest that stronger socioeconomic conditions are generally accompanied by a more effective and better-structured state presence, contributing to improved investigative capacity.
Negative Factors
The study found that several factors are associated with lower homicide clearance rates, including a high proportion of intentional homicide reports, elevated unemployment levels, a greater share of firearm-related homicides, higher rates of victims aged between 15 and 29, illiteracy, and greater income inequality as measured by the Gini Index. According to the researchers, environments characterized by persistent violence and social inequality make it more difficult to collect evidence, locate witnesses, and build public trust in law enforcement institutions.
Armed Violence
The report also found that states with higher proportions of firearm-related homicides generally record lower homicide clearance rates. Examples include Amapá, with an average clearance rate of 30% between 2020 and 2023, Bahia (14%), and Pernambuco (33%). By contrast, the Federal District (81%), Minas Gerais (75%), and Paraná (72%) achieved clearance rates well above the national average while also recording lower levels of firearm-related killings.
Firearm Seizures
According to the Sou da Paz Institute, the data also suggest that stronger firearm control policies may contribute to better investigative performance. The study identified a positive correlation between higher rates of firearm seizures and improved homicide clearance rates, indicating that efforts to remove illegal weapons from circulation may strengthen criminal investigations and facilitate the identification of perpetrators.
Rondônia
The study also identifies exceptions to the general pattern. Rondônia, for example, combines a relatively high homicide rate with a high homicide clearance rate. The state achieved a 67% clearance rate despite recording 29.9 intentional violent deaths per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023—one of the 11 highest homicide rates in Brazil and nearly three times the rate recorded in the Federal District (11.1 per 100,000 inhabitants). According to the report, this performance is largely attributed to an investigative continuity model, under which the same police team that responds to the crime scene remains responsible for the investigation until the case is concluded.
Analysis:
The findings reinforce that homicide clearance rates depend not only on police performance but also on the broader institutional and socioeconomic environment in which investigations take place. As Carolina Ricardo, Executive Director of the Sou da Paz Institute, noted, “understanding the factors associated with the solving of homicides is crucial not only for evaluating the performance of public security institutions but also for guiding public policies and strategic decisions aimed at tackling lethal violence and guaranteeing the right to life.” States with higher levels of income, education, and public investment generally possess stronger investigative structures, better forensic resources, and greater cooperation between police, prosecutors, and the judiciary. These conditions create a more favorable environment for collecting evidence, protecting witnesses, and sustaining long-term investigations.
The relationship between firearm violence and lower clearance rates also reflects the operational complexity of investigating lethal crime in highly violent environments. Areas with widespread illegal firearms often experience greater criminal organizations, witness intimidation, and repeated cycles of violence that place additional pressure on investigative agencies.
Sources: O Globo.
