On Thursday (22/06), the trial that can make former President Jair Bolsonaro ineligible for the next eight years began. The trial will be resumed at TSE next Tuesday (27/06), and it can have a great impact on the political scenario of Brazil, since it can remove from the political dispute President Lula’s greatest contender and leader of the opposition.
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The Case
The trial focuses on electoral offenses committed former President Bolsonaro – abuse of political power and misuse of the media –, would have attacked the credibility of the electoral system during a presentation to dozens of foreign ambassadors at a meeting in Brasília. The event took place on July 18, 2022, at Palácio da Alvorada, and it was broadcasted on TV Brasil, shared on social networks. After the episode, the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) filed this lawsuit against the Bolsonaros’ ticket, formed by the former president and his vice-president, General Walter Braga Netto (PL).
Odds
Folha de São Paulo newspaper spoke to members of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) and of higher courts. For the ministers of these courts, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) will make former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) ineligible in the trial. The diagnosis is that there is an unfavorable trend towards the former president.
Resistance and Possible Option
Allies of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) claim that, if the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) makes the former president, the political strategy will be to keep him in the electoral game, avoiding appointing a successor and clinging to the possibility of reversing defeat with legal appeals. However, behind the scenes, even the supporters of former President Bolsonaro take the condemnation for granted.
Coup Plan
Recent findings made the thesis of attempted coup d’état by former President Bolsonaro and his allies stronger, and the material was included in the case analyzed by the TSE, worsening the scenario against the former President. Among these findings there are phone messages exchanged between Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid Ciro, Bolsonaro’s assistant, and members of the armed forces talking about a coup d’état; and a variety of documents that reveals a survey promoted by Cid to give legal support to an eventual coup. In addition, previously, another document with plans for a coup d’état was found in former Justice Minister Anderson Torres’ house.
Superior Military Court (STM) President Francisco Joseli Parente Camelo said that the indications that there was an attempted coup against the government of President Lula (PT) are strong. The statement was made in an interview with journalists.
On the other hand, other military do not see any coup attempts. General Fernando José Sant’Ana Soares e Silva, Chief of Staff of the Army, denied that the Armed Forces had been involved in plans to derail the inauguration and government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Our Analysis:
Bolsonaro is still quite popular among a large part of the population. His popularity dragged millions to protest in front of military barracks from November 2022 to January 2023. Despite the impact of the actions carried out to punish individuals involved in the acts from 8 January, if he becomes ineligible, several protests could emerge.
Source: Folha de SP [1], [2], [3], [4]; O Globo; UOL Notícias [1], [2], [3].
