On Saturday (01/02), Senator Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil), 47, was elected again as president of the Senate, while congressman Hugo Motta (Republicanos) was elected as president of the Chamber of Deputies. The newly elected leaders of both houses will meet with President Lula on Monday morning (03/02) to discuss the government’s priority agenda.
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Significant Votes
Both Motta and Alcolumbre secured significant support in their elections, receiving backing from both the government and the opposition. In their inauguration speeches, they sent mixed signals about their future relationship with the Executive. Alcolumbre spoke about taking a courageous stance toward the government, Judiciary, media, and financial markets. At the same time, Motta emphasized a strong Parliament, advocating for economic stability and defending parliamentary amendments—a topic expected to spark renewed disputes in 2025.
Government Agendas
Throughout the first two years of his term, President Lula has experienced moments of both cooperation and friction with the National Congress. The Executive and Legislative branches aligned on key issues such as the response to the 8 January 2023 terrorist acts, the approval of tax reform, and federal spending cuts. However, tensions arose over topics such as transparency in parliamentary amendments, Lula’s criticism of the so-called “t-shirt tax,” and his vetoes on payroll tax exemptions and state debt refinancing.
Ministerial Reform
With the elections of Davi Alcolumbre and Hugo Motta confirmed, government officials and congressional allies believe that President Lula will now proceed with changes to his ministerial team. The expectation is that announcements could be made this week. Lula had been waiting for the new legislative leadership to define these changes in consultation with deputies and senators. Allies of Motta indicate that he will push for a change in the Secretariat of Institutional Relations, advocating for a stronger political coordination role within the Planalto Palace.
Relationship with the STF
The new leaders of Congress will also need to address an ongoing dispute with the Supreme Federal Court (STF) over parliamentary amendments. A meeting is scheduled for February with Minister Flávio Dino, the STF rapporteur on cases where fund transfers were blocked. Additionally, tensions are rising as the Supreme Court advances investigations into alleged misappropriation of funds by members of Congress. Lawmakers are pushing for a swift resolution, with Motta expressing a desire for a closer relationship with the Court, including negotiations on amendments. Alcolumbre, after his reelection, advocated dialogue and conciliation between the branches.
Relationship with the Centrão
The political bloc known as the Centrão celebrated its victory in controlling Congress, viewing it as an opportunity to expand its power over the government and public funds, particularly at a time when Lula’s popularity was declining. On Saturday night (01/02), after the election, Centrão leaders were already discussing potential government restructuring and efforts to reassert control over parliamentary amendments. Driven by their strengthened position, these leaders have begun advocating for a reshuffle in Lula’s administration, which could reduce the PT’s influence in the government’s coordination efforts.
Analysis:
The election of Davi Alcolumbre in the Senate and Hugo Motta in the Chamber of Deputies consolidates the dominance of the Centrão group over the National Congress. It presents new challenges for President Lula’s administration. Despite the optimistic discourse from the president and his allies, the political reality remains unfavorable for the government, which faces a Congress largely leaning toward the center-right and right. In his first two years in office, Lula recorded one of the weakest legislative performances of any president, even after granting 11 ministries to the Centrão as a political bargaining strategy. The victory of the new legislative leaders does not guarantee governability but rather reinforces the need for constant negotiations by the Executive to avoid significant setbacks.
Although Alcolumbre and Motta received government support, their inaugural speeches made it clear that they intended to reinforce the independence of Parliament. One of the key areas of tension will be the relationship between Congress and the Supreme Federal Court (STF), particularly regarding parliamentary amendments. The Centrão is pushing for a swift resolution to legal obstacles blocking resource transfers, while the STF continues investigations into the alleged misappropriation of funds by lawmakers. The presence of Flávio Dino as a Supreme Court Minister adds a political dimension to this dispute, given his appointment by Lula and his history of confrontations with segments of the Legislature.
Sources: O Globo [1], [2], [3]; G1 [1], [2]; A Folha de SP [1], [2].