The PSD was the party with the highest number of mayors elected in the first round of the 2024 municipal elections, surpassing the MDB for the first time in 20 years. In Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Paes (PSD) was re-elected in the first round for his fourth term, securing 60.47% of the vote. In São Paulo, Ricardo Nunes (MDB) and Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) will face off in the second round after a tight race, with Nunes receiving 29.48% of the votes and Boulos 29.07%. This scenario highlights a significant shift in the local and national political landscape, with the PSD gaining prominence in several capitals across the country.
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PSD Rises
The PSD, founded in 2011 by Gilberto Kassab, was the party that advanced the most in absolute numbers of mayors elected in this 1st round. The total number of municipalities won by the party rose from 650 in 2020 to 878 in 2024 — an increase of 228, or 35%. Since its first election in 2012, the PSD has been registering constant growth. In its debut year, the party won in 495 municipalities in the 1st round.
PSDB Shrinks
The data also shows the shrinking of the PSDB across the country. The party — which governed the state of São Paulo for almost 30 years and fought important disputes with the PT for national prominence — saw the total number of cities won in the 1st round fall from 512 in 2020 to 269 in 2024. The drop of 243 (47%) in the total number of city halls in the 1st round this year makes the PSDB the party with the biggest absolute losses in the country about the last municipal elections, in 2020.
The PSDB’s electoral result in São Paulo helps to exemplify the moment in which the party passes. The party’s candidate in São Paulo, José Luiz Datena, obtained only 1.84% of the valid votes, a number lower than the city’s most-voted councilor.
São Paulo
The 2024 municipal election in São Paulo has become a highly contested race, with Ricardo Nunes (MDB) and Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) advancing to the second round. Nunes, the incumbent mayor, received 29.48% of the votes, while Boulos, with the endorsement of President Lula (PT), garnered 29.07%, making him one of the closest elections in the city’s history.
A third candidate, Pablo Marçal (PRTB ), who finished with 28.14% of the votes, played a pivotal role in shaping the first-round dynamics but did not advance.
Rio de Janeiro
Despite the strong engagement in Alexandre Ramagem’s (PL) campaign, former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) was unable to secure the victory of his political godson in the city of Rio de Janeiro. For the second consecutive time, Eduardo Paes (PSD) secured the majority of votes in all 49 electoral zones in the capital of Rio de Janeiro. He won in the first round with approximately 60% of the valid votes, while Ramagem obtained 31%.
Other Capitals
In total, 11 capitals elected their mayors in the first round of the 2024 municipal elections. At around 18:30, Eduardo Braide (PSD) was the first to win, in São Luís (MA), with more than 400,000 votes. The biggest advantage was Dr. Furlan, in Macapá (AP). He won the election with 85.08% of the votes. Among the political parties, the PSD was the one that secured the most seats in this first round, with three elected mayors: Rio de Janeiro (RJ), São Luís (MA), and Florianópolis (SC). The PL, MDB, and União Brasil won in two capitals each. The Republicans and PSB won in one.
Capitals with Second Round
Fifteen Brazilian capitals will have 2nd round in the 2024 Elections. The city of Belém (PA) was the first capital to have a 2nd round defined this Sunday (6). The dispute will be between candidates Igor Normando (MDB) and Delegado Eder Mauro (PL). The last capital to define its 2nd round was São Paulo (SP), where the dispute was only concluded with 99.52% of the ballots counted, at 9:07 pm. Ricardo Nunes (MDB) and Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) will face each other.
Analysis:
The 2024 municipal elections in Brazil mark a significant shift in the political landscape, with the PSD – a “Centrão” member – emerging as the dominant force by electing the highest number of mayors in the first round, overtaking the traditional powerhouse, MDB, for the first time in two decades.
The 2024 municipal elections in Brazil highlighted the evolving dynamics of the political landscape, particularly the contrasting roles of the Partido Liberal (PL), led by former president Jair Bolsonaro, and the current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The PL, closely associated with former president Bolsonaro, faced challenges in key cities during the 2024 elections. In Rio de Janeiro, a crucial electoral stronghold for Bolsonarismo, Bolsonaro’s political protégé, Alexandre Ramagem, failed to secure victory against Eduardo Paes (PSD). This result reflects, according to some political commentators, a limitation in Bolsonaro’s ability to transfer his popularity to his chosen candidates based on what was expected of him. However, he still granted good results that can even be improved in the second round. In two capitals he had his candidates for mayor elected. Meanwhile, in 9 other capitals, his candidates will face the second round.
On the opposite end of the political spectrum, President Lula (PT) suffered defeats. The Workers Party (PT) had no candidates elected in the capitals and only managed to dispute a second round in four.
