As Brazil’s 2026 presidential race intensifies, the latest polling and political developments suggest a growing advantage for President Lula over his main challenger, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. A new BTG/Nexus survey shows Lula extending his lead in a hypothetical runoff to six percentage points, a margin that has widened steadily since April when the two candidates were statistically tied. The U.S. decision to impose a 25% tariff on Brazilian imports has emerged as a significant liability for Bolsonaro’s campaign, with his allies struggling to craft a coherent response while Lula seeks to tie the senator directly to the measure. On the congressional front, the Lula administration has deployed parliamentary amendment funds strategically, directing nearly three times more resources to allied senators than to those from Bolsonaro’s PL party. However, the government faces mounting difficulties in the Senate, where a combination of electoral positioning, the political maneuvering of Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, and a deteriorating relationship with Lula produced a series of costly legislative defeats — pushing the administration to rely increasingly on the Chamber of Deputies to contain the fallout.
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New Poll
A new BTG/Nexus poll released on Monday (15/06) shows President Lula (PT) leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in a hypothetical second-round presidential runoff by 49% to 43%. Lula’s lead, now six percentage points, has widened since May, when the margin stood at four points, with the president polling at 47% against Flávio Bolsonaro’s 43%. In April, the two candidates were statistically tied, with Lula at 46% and the senator at 45%. The survey also indicates that Lula remains ahead in first-round voting scenarios, with Flávio Bolsonaro emerging as his principal challenger. The poll interviewed 2,017 people aged 16 and older by telephone between June 12 and 14. The margin of error is two percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%.
New Tariffs
Centrist politicians and even some allies of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) view the United States’ decision to impose a new 25% tariff on imports from Brazil as a setback for his presidential campaign. Since the announcement, the measure has become a central point of criticism from President Lula and his allies. Members of Flávio Bolsonaro’s political circle believe it is still possible to reverse the negative impact, although they acknowledge that the senator’s initial response lacked coordination and clarity. While Lula has publicly linked Flávio to the tariff dispute, Bolsonaro’s allies have sought to distance him from responsibility for the measure but have yet to establish a consistent narrative on social media. In a video released after the announcement, the senator argued that he had defended the removal of the tariffs, attempted to refocus attention on the issue of criminal factions—a topic that had previously benefited his campaign—and stressed that the trade measure affects several countries and predates his visit to President Donald Trump.
Release of Amendments
The federal government allocated roughly three times more committee amendment funding to senators from parties that have already agreed to support President Lula’s reelection coalition than to lawmakers from the PL, the largest party in the Senate and the political home of Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula’s main rival in the election. According to a survey conducted by GLOBO using 2026 budget data, members of the PT, PSB, and PDT received an average of R$34.1 million each in committee amendments, while PL senators received an average of R$9.7 million. In addition to Lula’s PT, the PSB—led nationally by Vice President Geraldo Alckmin—and the PDT have already confirmed their participation in the president’s electoral coalition. The senator who received the largest amount of committee amendment funding this year was Cid Gomes (PSB), the party’s leader in the Senate, with R$72.9 million. He is expected to seek reelection as part of an alliance with the PT in Ceará, where he will face political groups aligned with his brother, former governor Ciro Gomes (PSDB).
Poor Relationship in the Senate
Following a series of defeats suffered by the government on Wednesday (10/06) in the Federal Senate, including the approval of “fiscal impact bills” that could generate costs estimated at more than R$200 billion, President Lula’s allies have identified three main factors behind the outcome. The first is the growing tendency of senators to adopt positions aimed at appealing to their electoral bases ahead of the upcoming elections. The second is the political strategy of Senate President Davi Alcolumbre (União Brasil), who is seeking to strengthen support among lawmakers as he prepares a bid for reelection to the leadership of the chamber next year. The third factor is the deterioration of relations between Lula and Alcolumbre. In response, the government is now relying on the Chamber of Deputies—particularly its president, Hugo Motta (Republicanos)—to prevent these proposals from advancing further this year. Unlike the situation in the Senate, Lula currently maintains a constructive relationship with Motta.
Analysis:
The latest polling data suggests that the presidential race is becoming increasingly shaped by external events and perceptions of political competence rather than by traditional ideological divisions alone. Lula’s gradual expansion of his lead since April indicates that recent developments have benefited the incumbent, particularly at a moment when Flávio Bolsonaro’s campaign has faced multiple controversies simultaneously. The U.S. tariff decision appears to have created a difficult political challenge for the senator because it allows opponents to frame him as being associated with a measure that could negatively affect Brazilian economic interests. Whether this perception becomes permanent will depend on the opposition’s ability to establish a more coherent narrative in the coming months.
The contrast between the government’s position in the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies may become one of the defining institutional dynamics of the electoral period. While the Senate has emerged as a source of resistance, driven by electoral calculations and tensions between the executive branch and Senate leadership, the Chamber remains a more favorable environment for the government.
Sources: A Folha de SP [1], [2], [3], [4]; O Globo [1], [2], [3]; G1 [1], [2].
