Brazil’s political landscape continues to show a stable but turbulent picture as the 2026 election approaches, with President Lula maintaining a solid advantage over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in the latest Datafolha poll, both in first-round voting intentions and in a simulated runoff. Despite this stability, Lula’s government approval ratings remain essentially unchanged, with negative assessments still outweighing positive ones, even as Congress notches a key legislative win with the lower house’s approval of the measure ending the 6×1 work schedule. Compounding the political turmoil, Jaques Wagner, the government’s Senate leader, has become a target of the latest phase of Operation Compliance Zero, facing allegations of accepting undue benefits in exchange for defending Banco Master’s interests in Congress. Meanwhile, former congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro was sentenced by the Supreme Federal Court to over four years in prison for attempting to intimidate the Brazilian judiciary, a ruling that renders him ineligible to hold public office for years to come.
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New Electoral Poll
President Lula (PT) maintained his lead in the most likely first-round electoral scenario and now records 41% of voting intentions, compared to 31% for Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), according to a new Datafolha poll released on Saturday (20/06). The survey suggests that the senator’s campaign has remained stagnant amid the political fallout from the “Dark Horse” case. In the previous poll, conducted after reports emerged that Flávio Bolsonaro had asked Banco Master owner Daniel Vorcaro for financial support for a film about former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), Lula registered 40% while Flávio Bolsonaro stood at 31%. The margin of error is two percentage points. Stability is also evident in the simulated runoff scenario, where both candidates repeated the figures recorded a month earlier: 47% for Lula and 43% for Flávio Bolsonaro. In this latest survey, blank and null votes account for 8% of respondents, while 1% remain undecided.
Government Evaluation
President Lula’s (PT) administration is viewed negatively by 38% of Brazilian voters, while 32% rate the government positively and 29% consider it average, according to a new Datafolha survey released on Saturday (20/06). The results indicate stability compared to the previous poll, which had already shown signs of improvement in the government’s approval ratings. In that earlier survey, conducted at the end of May, 38% rated the administration negatively, 32% positively, and 28% as average. For the latest poll, Datafolha interviewed 2,004 voters in person on June 17 and 18 at locations with high pedestrian traffic. The margin of error is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. Since the previous survey, the Chamber of Deputies approved the constitutional amendment aimed at ending the 6×1 work schedule, one of the government’s main electoral initiatives, although the proposal remains stalled in the Senate. Internationally, the Donald Trump administration proposed a new 25% tariff on Brazilian goods and formally designated the PCC and Red Command criminal factions as terrorist organizations.
Government Leader in the Senate
Senator Jaques Wagner (PT), the Lula government’s leader in the Federal Senate, is among the targets of the ninth phase of Operation Compliance Zero, launched by the Federal Police (PF) on Thursday (18/06). According to investigators, Wagner allegedly acted in Congress to defend the interests of Banco Master and, in return, received undue benefits, including a luxury apartment in Salvador valued at approximately R$2.5 million and financial transfers to companies linked to members of his family. Operation Compliance Zero is investigating an alleged multi-billion-real scheme involving fraud, corruption, money laundering, and obstruction of justice connected to Banco Master and its owner, Daniel Vorcaro.
Eduardo Bolsonaro
The First Panel of the Supreme Federal Court (STF) unanimously sentenced former federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL) on Tuesday (16/06) to four years and two months in prison under a semi-open regime for the crime of coercion during judicial proceedings, related to actions carried out in the United States that were deemed an attempt to intimidate the Brazilian Judiciary and interfere with the examination of the alleged coup plot case. With the conviction, the former congressman becomes ineligible to run for public office under Brazil’s Clean Record Law and will be barred from seeking elected office for up to eight years. He was also ordered to pay a fine of approximately R$150,000 and will lose his position as a Federal Police clerk, from which he is currently suspended. The decision may still be appealed.
Analysis:
The latest developments suggest that Brazil’s political environment remains relatively stable in electoral terms, but increasingly volatile in institutional and legal terms. Lula’s lead over Flávio Bolsonaro has remained consistent across recent polls, indicating that the opposition has struggled to convert dissatisfaction with the government into electoral momentum. The persistence of negative evaluations exceeding positive ones demonstrates that Lula retains significant political vulnerabilities, yet the opposition has not fully capitalized on them. The controversy surrounding the “Dark Horse” case appears to have limited Flávio Bolsonaro’s recent growth.
The legal cases involving Senator Jaques Wagner and Eduardo Bolsonaro further reinforce the growing judicialization of Brazilian politics. If the allegations against Wagner advance, the government could face additional political pressure within Congress at a time when Senate support is already fragile. On the opposition side, Eduardo Bolsonaro’s conviction represents a significant setback for one of the most influential figures within Bolsonaro’s political movement and may further concentrate leadership responsibilities around Flávio Bolsonaro.
Sources: A Folha de SP [1], [2], [3], [4], [5]; G1 [1], [2]; O Globo.
