President Lula (PT) faces growing political uncertainty as his administration enters a critical phase marked by declining approval ratings, internal party disputes, and strategic challenges ahead of the 2026 elections. With his popularity at its lowest level since the start of his term, Lula has yet to define whether he will seek reelection, while tensions within his party complicate government decisions, including ministerial reform. As he pressures his team for results to solidify his legacy, opposition forces gain momentum, and securing political alliances becomes increasingly difficult. Meanwhile, public sentiment shifts, with a rising number of voters— including many of his supporters—believing he should not run again.
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Government Approval Drop
On the eve of a ministerial reshuffle and after adjustments to its communication strategy, the Lula administration is entering its “second half” with declining popularity. His government now holds the lowest approval rating of any PT administration in Datafolha’s historical series. According to the latest survey released on Friday (14/02), the percentage of voters who rate Lula’s administration as excellent or good fell 11 percentage points in just two months, dropping from 35% to 24%. Meanwhile, the government’s negative rating (bad or terrible) reached a record high, rising from 34% to 41%. The percentage of respondents who consider the administration average increased from 29% in December to 32% in the most recent survey, conducted between February 10 and 11, with 2,007 voters and a margin of error of two percentage points.
Lula’s Future
Uncertainty surrounding Lula’s future in 2026 has intensified after the president received the worst approval rating of his current term, according to a Datafolha poll released on Friday (14/02). The PT leader has yet to decide whether he will seek reelection and is not actively working to groom a strong successor. However, a few months ago, Lula privately told his closest aides that he wanted to follow Joe Biden’s example. According to government sources, he made it clear that if he decides to run despite health concerns, he expects to be warned if his condition is not suitable for the campaign.
Internal Dispute Within the Party
The intense power struggle within the PT, which must elect new leadership in the coming months, has directly influenced internal government discussions about ministerial reform. Since the reform process began, President Lula has had to navigate tensions both within the Workers’ Party and between rival factions—one led by former Araraquara mayor Edinho Silva, who leans more to the right of the party, and the other by current PT national president Gleisi Hoffmann, who represents the party’s left wing. The president has not yet given any indication of his preferred course of action, further fueling behind-the-scenes disputes and speculation.
2026 Has Already Begun
Lula’s urgency in demanding results from his ministers is based on a political calculation that “2026 has already begun,” a statement he made during the first ministerial meeting of the year in January. His concern is that he has yet to leave a defining legacy in his third term, as he did with the Bolsa Família and Minha Casa Minha Vida programs during his previous presidencies. The push for concrete achievements has intensified after approval ratings showed a decline in public support.
Problems in Forming Alliances
Lula’s lowest approval rating across all his presidencies has emboldened the opposition and signaled a more challenging political landscape for the 2026 elections. His aides acknowledge that the latest Datafolha numbers, released on Friday (15/02), complicate one of the key objectives of the planned ministerial reform: securing political party support for next year’s election.
Should Not Run
Further evidence of Lula’s declining popularity is the increasing percentage of Brazilians who believe he should not seek reelection, rising from 57% to 62%. An Ipec survey released on Saturday (15/02) also shows waning support among PT voters. Among those who voted for Lula in 2022, the share of respondents who now believe he should not run again has climbed from 24% to 32%—more than one in three of his supporters.
Analysis:
Lula faces a challenging political landscape, where his electoral strategy, based on the success of social policies, may no longer be enough to secure a smooth reelection in 2026. According to Christian Lynch, a political scientist at the State University of Rio de Janeiro, the model that once favored the Workers’ Party (PT) in previous elections does not apply in the current context. The rise and consolidation of the far right in Brazil and worldwide have reshaped the electoral dynamic, making ideological polarization a decisive factor. In 2010, when Lula left office with record-high approval ratings, the political environment was less divided, and the impact of social programs was sufficient to secure broad public support. Today, growing dissatisfaction with his administration and a fragmented electorate demand new strategies.
Moreover, Lula’s declining popularity reflects his government’s struggle to craft a compelling narrative beyond comparisons with past PT administrations. The president also faces internal challenges within his party, as the PT has yet to establish a viable successor. At the same time, his political maneuvering is hindered by difficulties in securing key alliances. The lack of a clear direction, both for his candidacy and for his government, strengthens the opposition and weakens confidence among groups that could provide crucial political and electoral support.
