Federal Chamber President Arthur Lira (PP-AL) has in his hands the power to disrupt the Lula (PT) government’s agenda, particularly in the economic field. However, government supporters and allies of the leader of “Centrão“, believe that he will not use the so-called “bomb agendas” to harm the Finance Minister’s goals.
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The risk of Lira triggering a package of votes on projects that increase expenses or remove revenue from the Executive came on the radar after tensions rose in Brasília following his speech during the opening of this year’s legislative work. Lira demanded that the federal government comply with signed agreements and said that the Executive Branch cannot exclusively control the Budget.
Dilma Government
The possibility of a troubled relationship with the presidency of the Chamber brings to the memory of PT members the final stretch of the Dilma Rousseff (PT) government. On that occasion, the then president of the Chamber, Eduardo Cunha (at the time at MDB-RJ), launched a “campaign” against the Executive, bringing to vote matters that put the country’s fiscal stability at risk, which came to be called “bomb agenda”.
Important Guidelines
At least three economic agendas are important for the government with initial processing in the Chamber: the negotiation of the provisional measure to reinstate the payroll, the regulation of tax reform and, if necessary, the project to change the target of zero deficit in accounts government in 2024.
Problems in the relationship with the Government
Lira and his allies resent a series of actions by the Lula government. Mainly the veto of this year’s LDO (Budget Guidelines Law) provision that established a calendar for payment of parliamentary amendments; the cut of R$5.6 billion in commission amendments; and the edition of the MP that reinstated the payroll and revoked Perse, a program for the events sector largely defended by Lira and deputies from the center.
Alexandre Padilha
President Lula (PT) signaled to allies that he does not intend to give in to pressure from the president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), against the Minister of Institutional Relations, Alexandre Padilha (PT), who is responsible for the government’s political coordination with the National Congress. Lira has raised his tone and warned Lula’s interlocutors that, if Padilha is not replaced, the government’s agenda in the Chamber would not move forward.
Lira indicated to Lula’s allies that the target of the dissatisfaction was Padilha, not the government. Therefore, government supporters say that the president of the Chamber will not refuse to talk to other PT ministers, such as Rui Costa (Casa Civil) and Fernando Haddad (Finance), the government leader in the House, Deputy José Guimarães (PT-CE), and President Lula himself.
Control over Amendments
Lula has indicated to people close to him that, upon returning from the Legislative recess, he intends to insist on plans that displease the parliamentary leadership, such as regaining greater control over amendments and that these resources can be directed to the New PAC (Growth Acceleration Program), Lula’s main showcase in the infrastructure area.
Lula’s ministers now argue that, when the vetoed R$5.6 billion is returned to the amendment quota, the government negotiates for the money to enter the PAC, in projects sponsored by deputies and senators.
Calendar 2024 The 2024 calendar, the year of municipal elections, poses a greater challenge to the Planalto’s articulation given the assessment that there will be less time to vote on matters including those of interest to the Executive — traditionally, the Legislature is emptied during elections.
Analysis:
The complex political dynamics in Brazil are evident with Arthur Lira, president of the Chamber of Deputies, exerting considerable influence over the agenda of Lula’s government. Lira emerges as a key figure with substantial bargaining power, particularly on economic issues, standing out as a potential obstacle to the implementation of the government’s sensitive economic agenda, especially regarding taxation and fiscal issues.
Lira maintains a significant influence on the economic agenda, with the ability to impact government proposals, at a time when crucial issues, such as changes in income and wealth taxation, are under discussion. The prospect of progress in these strategic areas is conditioned on Lira’s willingness to participate in negotiations.
The history of the tense relationship between Dilma Rousseff and Eduardo Cunha in the past suggests concern about the possible repetition of strategies harmful to the country’s fiscal stability.
The cautious approach adopted by Lula after criticism from the President of the Chamber demonstrates a strategic understanding of the political environment, indicating a diplomatic stance to preserve a balance in relations between the powers.