In his third term as President, President Lula (PT) continues to have difficulty approving projects in Congress that go beyond the economic area and still faces clashes with projects pushed by supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro in Parliament. The most recent vote that brought together deputies and senators resulted in defeats, such as the overturning of the veto on restrictions on the “Saidinha” (leaving prison) of prisoners and led the PT member to call for a reorganization of his political articulation.
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PSD Example
The PSD, for example, at the head of three ministries (Mines and Energy, Agriculture and Fisheries), went from voting 86% in line with government guidance in 2023 to a current average of 74%. The data only considers the roll-call votes made in the Chamber plenary in which the government indicated “yes” or “no”. In this section, there were 80 votes in 2024 and 238 last year.
Priority Agendas
A project that shows this divergence between the government and its allies is that of the anti-MST bill. Voted in May, the bill prevents direct and indirect property invaders from receiving federal social benefits, such as Minha Casa, Minha Vida. MST is an important government ally in the social movements field, yet parties like PSD decided not to follow the government and vote in favor of the project.
MDB Example
Another party that reduced its alignment was the MDB, also at the head of three ministries: Transport, Cities and Planning. The party’s index went from 81% in 2023 to 69% now.
The party has opposition figures in its bench, such as Jair Bolsonaro’s former minister Osmar Terra (MDB-RS), and leaders of the ruralist bench, such as Alceu Moreira (MDB-RS), which leads to heterogeneity in the delivery of votes on usual schedules.
Zero Articulation
In addition to these parties, the rate in União Brasil fell from 71% to 63% in 2024. In the PP, the rate went from 75% to 65% in the same period. The drop in the support of centrist parties occurs in parallel with the increase in the release of amendments. As 2024 is an election year, resources need to be released up to four months before the election in October this year. By Thursday (6), the government had already committed R$19.8 billion, around 40% of the total amendments planned for the year.
Attempt to Improve
As part of an attempt to improve relations with Congress, President Lula will hold the second coordination meeting on Monday (10/06) morning, with the participation of the main ministers and government leaders in the Legislature. The practice of discussing the main issues on Monday, which existed during the PT member’s first two terms, was resumed last week, after the government’s series of defeats, with the president’s vetoes being overturned by parliamentarians.
Less Patience
In his third term, President Lula has revealed an unusual lack of patience for the government’s day-to-day routines and the rituals of politics, according to the perception of the PT leader’s historical allies. The assessment is that this stance has been reflected in the difficulties in the relationship with Congress, which became evident once again in a series of defeats in Congress.
Analysis:
President Lula’s third term has been marked by significant difficulties in approving projects in Congress, especially those that go beyond the economic area. The recent failure to overturn the veto on restrictions on prisoner release highlights the challenges faced by the government, leading to a need to reorganize political articulation.
The drop in the support of allied parties, such as PSD and MDB, which reduced their alignment with government guidelines, highlights the government’s difficulty in forming an allied base. Mainly due to internal differences.
Lula’s attempt to improve relations with Congress, such as the resumption of coordination meetings on Mondays, shows a conscious effort to reverse the situation. The government’s success in advancing its agenda will depend on its ability to regain and maintain the support of centrist parties, as well as improving communication and coordination within its allied base.
