A Datafolha poll released on Wednesday (08/07) shows that the lack of policing is regarded as the main public security problem in the state of São Paulo by 20% of its residents. The survey, commissioned by Folha de S.Paulo, interviewed 1,608 voters between July 1 and July 3 across 71 municipalities in the state. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points. Robberies came in second place, cited by 11% of respondents — up from 8% in the previous survey — followed by drug trafficking, mentioned by 8%. Although still the top concern, the share citing lack of policing is lower than in 2022, when 24% pointed to the same problem. The perception also varies by region: concern is higher among residents of the capital and the greater São Paulo metropolitan area (24%) than in the interior of the state (17%).
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Previous Poll
In the previous survey on the subject, conducted in 2022, the proportion of respondents who considered the lack of policing to be São Paulo’s main security problem was higher, at 24%. Robberies ranked second, cited by 11% of respondents, three percentage points higher than in the previous survey, when they accounted for 8%. Security, or the lack of it, was mentioned by 7% of respondents, followed by ineffective laws or impunity (6%), criminal factions and organized crime (4%), and poorly prepared or inadequately trained police officers (4%).
Main Problems
Main public security problem in São Paulo, according to state residents:
- Lack of policing/too few police officers or patrol vehicles: 20%
- Robberies: 11%
- Drug trafficking/drugs: 8%
- Lack of security: 7%
- Laws/legislation/impunity: 6%
- Criminal factions/organized crime: 4%
- Poor police training/low-quality policing/ineffective police services: 4%
- Lack of investment/insufficient appreciation of police officers: 3%
- Crime/violence: 3%
- Abuse of authority/police violence/police conduct/violent treatment of the population: 2%
- Police/policing: 2%
- Other: 15%
Political Issue
Public security concerns cut across different political groups. When respondents were asked whether the shortage of police officers on the streets is the main obstacle to improving security in São Paulo, supporters of Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos) and former governor Fernando Haddad (PT) expressed similar views, at 19% and 25%, respectively. The results were also broadly consistent across genders, with 22% of women identifying the lack of policing as the state’s main security concern, compared to 18% of men.
Age Group
Among respondents aged 35 to 44, the lack of policing was the most frequently cited public security problem, at 24%. By contrast, it was least frequently mentioned by respondents aged 16 to 24, at 14%.
- 16 to 24 years old: 14%
- 25 to 34 years old: 16%
- 35 to 44 years old: 24%
- 45 to 59 years old: 21%
- 60 years or older: 22%
Concern about the lack of policing was also more pronounced among residents of the city of São Paulo and its metropolitan area, where 24% identified it as the state’s main security problem. In the interior of the state, the figure was 17%.
Analysis:
The survey indicates that public perception of insecurity in São Paulo is driven less by specific criminal organizations and more by the perceived visibility and availability of law enforcement. The fact that one in five respondents identifies the lack of policing as the state’s primary security concern suggests that residents associate police presence with deterrence and rapid response capabilities. While this perception has improved slightly compared to 2022, it remains the dominant concern despite reductions in several crime indicators recorded in recent years. This demonstrates that public confidence in security policies depends not only on statistical improvements but also on whether citizens feel protected during their daily routines.
