The overall number of murders continues to fall in Brazil in 2023, according to the national homicide index created by G1, based on official data from the 26 states and the Federal District. There were 19,700 murders in the first six months of this year, which represents a drop of 3.4% compared to the same period last year.
This Content Is Only For Subscribers
To unlock this content, subscribe to INTERLIRA Reports.
The state that recorded the highest drop was Roraima, with 22.5%. Against the trend of the country, ten states had increases in violent deaths: Acre, Alagoas, Amapá, Espírito Santo, Maranhão, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Tocantins. Amapá is, by far, the state with the highest increase: 65.1%. The victims of the following crimes are counted in the survey: intentional homicides (including femicides), robberies followed by death and bodily injuries followed by death.
Numbers Fall But Remain High
In 2022, Brazil had a 1% drop in the number of murders, as pointed out by the exclusive survey by Monitor da Violência. There were 40,800 intentional violent deaths in the country last year, the lowest number in the entire historical series of the Brazilian Public Security Forum for the second year in a row. According to specialists from the Brazilian Public Security Forum (FBSP) and the Center for the Study of Violence at USP (NEV-USP), although the reduction in these indicators is news that deserves to be celebrated, we continue to be an extremely violent country. On average, there were almost 110 murders per day in the last semester.
Warning Point: Increase in Violence in the Southeast
Data shows that all regions of the country had a drop in murders — except for the Southeast. There were 5,099 murders in the Southeast in the first half of this year – 212 more deaths than in the same period of 2022. The number represents an increase of 4.3%. In the region, only São Paulo had a drop of 5.2%, reversing the upward trend that had been observed in the first quarter.
Rio de Janeiro
Rio de Janeiro State recorded a 17.3% increase in the number of murders in the first six months of 2023 compared to the same period last year. 1,790 murders were recorded in the first half of 2023, against 1,526 registered between January and June 2022. The increase is the second highest in the country, behind only Amapá (65.1%). These 1,790 deaths are equivalent to 10 per day or one every 2 and a half hours.
Our Analysis:
The accumulated reduction in the last five years in several Brazilian states may indicate a relative stability in the positions of power of the regional gangs in their territories, which has been settling after the fierce disputes of the last decade. Seeking to act as a regulatory agency for the crime market, large criminal organizations have taken on a relevant role in mediating conflicts and punishing deviants, creating a more predictable and professional business environment, which favored increased profits. The commitment to rationality and the reduction of violence allowed the factions to weave a wide network of partners in other states and in the South American countries that produce the drug, contributing to make Brazilian traffickers important players in the export of cocaine from the continent to the rest of the world. In addition, in several Brazilian states it may indicate a relative stability in the power positions of regional gangs in their territories, which has been settling after a period of fierce disputes.
