On 28 October, a massive police operation involving 2,500 officers stormed the Red Command’s headquarters in Rio de Janeiro, unleashing hours of gunfire that left 121 people dead and plunged the city into chaos. The bloodshed quickly became a political flashpoint, fueling a national debate on public security ahead of Brazil’s 2026 presidential race. Governor Cláudio Castro used the moment to attack the federal government, while President Lula sought to regain control through coordinated anti-crime measures and the fast-tracked “Antifaction” bill. As the right capitalized on tough-on-crime rhetoric, Castro’s popularity surged, underscoring how the country’s deadliest police operation has reshaped both Rio’s security agenda and Brazil’s electoral landscape.
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The Politization of the Megaoperation
The Rio de Janeiro police operation against the Red Command (CV) has pushed public security to the center of Brazil’s 2026 presidential race. Governor Cláudio Castro (PL) tried to blame the federal government for state security failures, deepening the political dispute with Lula’s administration. The left continues to struggle with the crime issue, as shown by Lula’s controversial remarks about drug traffickers – recently, he said that the traffickers were also victims of the addicts –, while the right maintains stronger rhetorical control over the theme. Despite Lula’s new anti-faction package and operations like Carbono Oculto against PCC-linked laundering, the far-right’s hardline narrative still dominates public opinion, leaving both camps exposed to political missteps ahead of the election.
Governor Castro Attacks the Federal Government
During the large-scale police operation against the CV in Rio de Janeiro, Governor Cláudio Castro (PL) accused the Lula administration and the Armed Forces of neglecting public security, claiming the state was “alone” in combating organized crime. The federal government, through Justice and Public Security Minister Ricardo Lewandowski, denied receiving any formal request for support and emphasized that all previous demands for the National Security Force had been met. After the public clash, Castro softened his tone, requesting and obtaining authorization to transfer ten high-risk prisoners to federal prisons. He also criticized the Supreme Court’s ADPF 365 ruling, blaming it for strengthening drug factions in Rio.
After the Storm… Comes Measures to Contain Losses
After the Rio de Janeiro police operation that killed over 100 people, President Lula broke his silence. He avoided further clashes with Rio’s governor and called for a “coordinated effort” to dismantle the drug trade’s core while protecting civilians. Later, Lula’s government and Governor Cláudio Castro announced the creation of a joint emergency office to combat organized crime, led by federal and state security officials. The crisis also prompted Lula to accelerate the “Antifaction” bill, sent to Congress on October 31, introducing harsher penalties of up to 30 years for leaders of “qualified criminal organizations” and creating a national criminal intelligence database. The initiative, alongside the proposed Public Security PEC – under analysis in the Congress –, reflects both a policy response to the bloodshed and a move to contain political damage ahead of 2026.
Harvesting the Political Results
Following the “Containment” police operation that left 121 people dead, a Datafolha poll (626 phone interviews on Oct. 30–31, ±4 p.p. margin) showed strong polarization in Rio de Janeiro. Governor Cláudio Castro’s approval reached its highest level since 2022, with 40% rating his administration as good or excellent, while disapproval also rose to 34% and 23% called it average. Regarding public security, 37% approved of the government’s performance and 37% disapproved. The operation was seen as a success by 57% of respondents and poorly executed by 24%; 48% considered it well conducted. Half of those surveyed said most of the dead were criminals (31% said all were). Although 51% agreed with the phrase “a good criminal is a dead criminal,” most favored restraint—77% said investigating and arresting is more important than killing, and 88% supported body cameras for police officers.
Analysis:
The October 28 megaoperation in Rio de Janeiro exposed deep fractures in the city’s security structure and governance. While intended to weaken the Red Command, the use of massive force and resulting chaos has increased the risk of retaliatory violence. Civilian mobility, logistics, and everyday safety are likely to suffer in the short term, particularly in areas under gang control.
Politically, the clash between Governor Cláudio Castro and President Lula has turned public security into a national campaign issue ahead of 2026. This politicization threatens coordination between state and federal forces, undermining coherent security policy. The narrative of “tough-on-crime” populism may bring short-term approval gains but risks entrenching violence and damaging Brazil’s international reputation if human rights concerns grow.
For residents and businesses, Rio’s environment will remain volatile. Companies face higher operational risks, potential disruption of supply routes, and rising insurance costs. New federal measures such as the “Antifaction” bill may tighten compliance requirements, especially in finance and logistics. Without institutional reform and investment in affected communities, insecurity and political polarization will continue to hinder Rio’s economic stability and growth.
Sources: A Folha de SP [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6], [7], [8].
